844
AWUS01 KWNH 141527
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-142126-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0684
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1126 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...Southeast OH, Southwest PA, WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141526Z - 142126Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible into this
afternoon across portions of southeast OH, southwest PA and WV.

DISCUSSION...Convection near an eastward moving shortwave/MCV
should continue over the next several hours across portions of
southwest PA into WV. Convection is not all that deep at the
moment, likely due to somewhat limited destabilization with the
cloud cover. However the ongoing activity does have a warm rain
look to it on reflectivity...and we are likely getting some
efficient rainfall out of even these lower topped cores. There
will be some continued destabilization over portions of WV as we
see some breaks in the clouds ahead the MCV which is likely still
over southeast OH as of 15z. It looks like portions of WV into far
southeast OH and southwest PA could end up with multiple rounds of
convection as this shortwave/MCV moves across the region into the
early afternoon hours. The extent of the flash flood risk remains
a bit unclear, as cells are generally showing an eastward movement
and the degree of convective organization remains of lower
confidence. However given the efficient nature of the ongoing
activity, and the likelihood of some deeper convective growth as
we head into the afternoon hours...at least some flash flood risk
appears to exist.

Current expectations are that the flood risk will stay localized
over this area, with the cell motions and limited convective
organization keeping the risk from being higher. With that said,
some cell mergers appear likely, and given the efficient rainfall
expected, hourly rainfall could quickly get into the 1-2" range
where any mergers occur resulting in the potential for isolated
instances of flash flooding.

The flash flood risk is expected to be higher to the east of the
current MPD area over the Mid-Atlantic, and a subsequent MPD or
two will likely be issued to describe that risk.

Chenard

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   41147992 40947925 39917898 38947918 38567932
            38337995 38308037 38288122 38288135 38408195
            38488231 38738263 39458248 39918224 40278159
            40828072