042
AWUS01 KWNH 081950
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-090130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1170
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Areas affected...West-Central to Central NM... Adjacent Northeast
AZ...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081950Z - 090130Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving thunderstorms may result in spots
of 1-2" totals in less than 2 hours, posing isolated localized
flash flash flooding conditions.   Adjacent

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and KABQ RADAR shows a sizable cluster
of convective development across portions of west-central NM
terrain (west of the Rio Grande Valley).  An ill-defined frontal
zone seems to be a confluent/pooling agent for southerly to
southeasterly upslope flow and moisture advection out of the Rio
Grande Valley.  Tds in the mid 50s in the upslope regime while
upper-level flow provides favorable divergence aloft at the apex
of the anticyclonically curved sub-tropical jet originating out of
the Sea of Cortez and across S NM.  The confluent flow at the
curvature of the front along with the upslope component appears to
be allowing for the greater overall coverage/clustering.

Prior to development, solid insolation and the lower moisture
profile and modest drying aloft has supported 1000+ J/kg of SBCAPE
and with the southerly/southeasterly confluent flow along the
gradient of overall deeper moisture (favorably loaded in the lower
profile per CIRA LPW) suggests modest rainfall efficiency for
these cells as they mature.  With the upper-level jet and weak
directional shear, effective bulk shear of 25-30kts suggests some
weak organization and perhaps some weak cell rotation to further
enhance moisture flux into the updraft column.  Mean winds of
20kts, slightly deflected due to any weak rotation along with
favorable upslope initially to help lock the up/downdraft to the
terrain for a few hours suggests some increased duration of modest
rates.  As such, rates of .75-1"/hr are possible resulting in
localized 1-2" totals in 1-2 hour time frames suggest localized
flash flooding could occur in an isolated to widely scattered
nature, with obviously higher potential in/around burn scars in
the vicinity through the afternoon into evening hours in the area
of concern.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36340704 36130620 36050606 35300549 34430565
            33820564 33420563 33460608 33610627 34250646
            34490671 34450703 33610734 33510812 33530857
            33960902 34480944 35170954 35780915 36300790