177
AWUS01 KWNH 031512
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-032000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1552
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northwest LA...Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031455Z - 032000Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms with high rainfall rates ahead of
a slow moving cold front will result in swaths of heavy rainfall
that may lead to some instances of flooding through 2pm local time
from the ArkLaTex to the Ozarks.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a corridor of
moderate to heavy rainfall extending from northeastern Texas to
the Ozarks of north-central Arkansas this morning. There has been
an increase in stronger convection within this corridor, and
training storms are leading to areas of enhanced rainfall rates
between Little Rock and Clarksville.

The atmosphere is favorable for additional heavy rainfall through
the midday hours given nearly uni-directional flow with modest
veering with height, allowing for back-building cells that will
result in instances of convective training. PWs are approaching
the 1.7 to 2 inch range and mixed layer CAPE gradually increasing
into the 500-750 J/kg range per recent SPC mesoanalysis. Broader
deep layer ascent is also being aided by diffluent right entrance
dynamics and a nearby mid-level shortwave.

Recent runs of the CAM guidance are suggesting the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 2-4 inches across portions of
the outlook area through 2 pm local time, and this is also
supported by the HRRR and RRFS guidance. This is reasonable to
expect given recent radar trends, and some instances of flooding
are possible.

Hamrick

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36499247 36349167 36099126 35609116 34689138
            33879179 32929235 32199301 31749348 31479433
            31559511 31849550 32159553 32719508 33299463
            34139417 34989377 36169327