243
AWUS01 KWNH 292248
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-300246-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1027
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...central/eastern Colorado, far western Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292246Z - 300246Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorm activity was backbuilding along
the I-25 corridor between Colorado Springs and Pueblo.  A couple
instances of flash flooding are possible through 02Z/8p MDT.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery has depicted backbuilding
convection along a relatively focused axis extending from I-25
between Colorado Springs and Pueblo eastward to near State Highway
71.  The storms are forming in a weak low-level-shear environment,
with 15-25F surface dewpoint depressions supporting mostly
outflow-dominant storms.  Despite the tendency for outflow
dominance, upstream mid-level flow was aiding in maintaining
>7C/km mid-level lapse rates, and an upstream mid-level
disturbance (evident via water vapor) was providing ascent aloft
while moving toward the discussion area.  PW values near 1 inch
and the backbuilding character of convection was supporting
occasional rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr in spots that were
beginning to exceed FFG thresholds on an isolated basis.

The ongoing scenario should support a localized flash flood threat
(tied to backbuilding convection) for a few hours this afternoon.
Models/CAMs suggest that ongoing activity will eventually pick up
more of an eastward component of motion while moving toward
eastern Colorado, supporting isolated flash flood potential
downstream of ongoing storms especially where mergers/training can
occur.  The downstream airmass is slightly more favorable for
heavy rainfall given higher PW values (1.5 inch near the KS/CO
border).  Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible in
this regime.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39740392 38690193 37090185 37740370 38140532
            39520558