859
AWUS01 KWNH 240048
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1519
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
847 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Areas affected...Far Southern CO...Much of NM and Far Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240047Z - 240645Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
locally high rainfall rates are expected to result in areas of
flash flooding going into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
expanding and cooling convective tops across sizable areas of
central through southern NM and down into far western TX. The
activity continues to organize out ahead of a slow-moving frontal
zone and and a large deep layer trough that is only gradually
ejecting eastward across the Western U.S.

Modest ejecting shortwave energy lifting out of the base of the
upper trough will cross through central and southern NM over the
next few hours while interacting with the nose of moderate
instability characterized by MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg.
This coupled with pockets of relatively strong low-level moisture
convergence and stronger kinematics aloft with as much as 30 to
40+ kts of effective bulk shear should tend to favor areas of
convective organization continuing through the evening hours.

PWs across the region are running as high as 1.5 to 2 standard
deviations above normal, and this combined with the instability
and cell-organization should tend to yield heavy rainfall rates
capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger
convective cores.

Some additional pockets of 2 to 2.5 inches of rain will be
possible where any brief cell-training occurs, and also near areas
of higher terrain. Some of the latest hires model CAMs target the
Sacramento Mountains over the next couple of hours with some of
these heavier totals. These rains in general across the region are
likely to foster areas of flash flooding through this evening, and
some of the more sensitive burn scar locations will be at
particular risk for flash flooding and debris flow activity. The
normally dry washes will also see an elevated risk for runoff
concerns as these relatively organized bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms cross the region.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37400437 37240351 36430311 35100323 32710362
            31790394 30940493 30890647 31600737 32310770
            33500773 34070765 34600753 35730712 36640636
            37210534