212
AWUS01 KWNH 160812
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-161300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0447
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Areas affected...northeastern KS into northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160811Z - 161300Z

Summary...Repeating and training of thunderstorms are likely to
maintain a flash flood threat from northeastern KS into
northwestern MO, including the Kansas City metro through 13Z.
Localized rainfall rates over 2 in/hr may occur.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0745Z showed a small
cluster of convection in northeastern KS, with an apparent MCV
about 10-20 miles northeast of MHK, tracking toward the ENE. VAD
wind data from KTWX showed 850 mb winds near 35 kt from the SW,
which continued to overrun an outflow boundary immediately south
of the ongoing convection. Peak observed rainfall rates per MRMS
were near 3 in/hr over southern Washington County earlier in the
event and a recent Wunderground.com report showed 0.5 inches in 15
minutes in northwestern Pottawatomie County.

A general eastward motion has been observed with the small MCS but
Trends in radar have shown some backbuilding along its
southwestern flank near I-70. The backbuilding has been a result
of Corfidi vectors oriented opposite to the low level wind due to
relatively weak 850-300 mb mean winds of 20-25 kt. 850 mb winds
are forecast to weaken to about 20-25 kt along the northern KS/MO
border through 12Z but also become perfectly aligned in direction
to 850-300 mb steering flow, maintaining weak Corfidi vector
orientation into the low level inflow, favoring a threat for
training and backbuilding of thunderstorms. The threat is expected
to translate east over the next 3-5 hours, possibly impacting the
Kansas City metro later this morning. Peak rainfall rates within
areas of training may surpass 2 in/hr locally. Flash flooding will
remain possible from northeastern KS into far northwestern MO
through about 13Z, at which point diurnal weakening of the MCS may
diminish the flash flood threat.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39929526 39809411 39329374 38629432 38489544
            38539708 38849746 39329723 39619684 39869625