844
AWUS01 KWNH 180017
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0475
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Northern OK...Far Southwest
MO...Ext Northwest AR...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 180015Z - 180600Z

SUMMARY...Strong, slow moving pre-frontal super-cells will grow
upscale while upstream redevelopment on the main front will
provide a secondary wave of intense rainfall likely to support a
broad area of 2-3" with embedded spots of 6"+ likely resulting in
flash flooding conditions through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts multiple smaller scale
convective clusters and shortwave features within the broad
cyclonic global trough the expands the breadth of the Northern and
Central Plains.   The main wave is lifting northeast across
southern NEB and was the main driver of last evening`s/this
morning`s MCS that saturated central and southern KS.  In the wake
a strong surface to 850mb cyclone has been evolving across the
Texas Panhandle with well defined warm conveyor belt wrapping very
deep moisture with strong advection across OK into southern KS
pooling 1.75 to near 2" total PWats along the KS/OK boarder.  With
stronger EML mixing/bulging northeastward across SW OK, winds have
backed more southerly and have interacted with leading outflow
boundary from this afternoon`s activity across south-central KS.
A few large/broad updrafts continue to slowly advance across
Sumner/Cowley into expanding into Bulter county.  Cells are being
fed by very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) from northeast OK.  WoFS
5-min and HRRR 15 minute along with observations denote the strong
moisture flux is support rates over 2.5"/hr with .5-.7" in 5
minutes and 1.5"/15 minutes forecast from each model respectively.
Steering flow is generally weak as secondary shortwave feature
that has been convectively enhance is digging southeastward out of
the Colorado High Plains.  This will allow for clusters to further
grow upscale while providing sufficient residency for 2-3"/hr
totals within the cores. Strengthening LLJ may aid some
southeastward propagation into the northern row(s) of Oklahoma.

Additionally, the backed low level flow will have sufficient
instability to develop another round of activity along the front
as seen up toward the heavy rainfall axis across McPherson,
Ellsworth counties, likely to build westward along the front in SW
Kansas.  Height-falls and surface outflow will support increased
forward propagation mainly after 02-03z, adding an additional 1-2"
totals and broadening the areal coverage of 2-3" totals across
south-central KS, expanding into northern OK.  Where the two
clusters overlap likely near Osage, Kay, Sumner, Cowley, and
Chautaqua county, there is increasing confidence in localized
totals of 3-6" through 06z.  WoFS signals have been very
consistent run to run with the mean increasing to near 4-4.5"
while the 90th percentile is becoming focused toward 7" maxima,
while other rapid refresh guidance and Hi-Res CAMs are within that
similar total range.  As such, flash flooding is likely to occur
across a large portion of the area of concern as the convective
lines combine through the overnight period, while a few areas
could see considerable to significant flash flooding conditions.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38959749 38569555 38119445 37489376 36759371
            36129430 35749526 35609677 35819850 36219994
            36979943 37579881 38599879