137
AWUS01 KWNH 011946
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-020145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1423
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...Kansas Into Oklahoma and Northern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011944Z - 020145Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and training thunderstorms over Kansas
continue to pivot into Oklahoma before expanding east over
northern Missouri through the rest of the afternoon. An additional
2-5 inches can be expected in southern Kansas into Oklahoma and
1-3" over northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Scattered flash
flooding will continue with coverage expanding over Missouri
through early evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite imagery shows an upper
low centered near the TX/OK Panhandle border with a surface low
apparent in obs just downstream on the central KS/OK border. A
deep plume of Gulf-sourced moisture extending up the southern
Plains continues to drift east and is currently up the OK/AR
border, across MO and into western IL. An arm of this plume wraps
west over KS and around the low pressure system.

Convergence along a stationary front and presence of an
instability pool around 1000 J/kg over southern KS has promoted a
south shift in the heavier thunderstorm location. Rates have
recently been 3"/hr around Dodge City with scattered 1-2"/hr rates
ENE from there across the rest of KS. The western portion of the
activity should continue pivoting south into the instability and
into Oklahoma in the coming hours. Rates are currently lower over
MO due to a lack of instability, but an eastward shift and peak
diurnal heating should reinvigorate rates in northern MO rest of
the afternoon.

Latest HRRR/RRFS both feature a swath of additional 2-5" through
01Z across southern KS (into west-central OK) due to the eastward
shift in instability and pivoting activity along the frontal zone.
There is also consensus for an additional 1-3" over northeast KS
and northern MO. Southern KS has not seen much rain in the past
24hrs, but heavy rain two days ago should make the area still
somewhat vulnerable and scattered flash flooding, locally
considerable should continue. Lower rates, but wetter
preconditions also warrant a scattered flash flood threat as well
over the KC metro east over northern MO along the stationary front.

The low pressure system will continue shifting east, so subsequent
discussions should be for eastern KS and farther east across the
Midwest for the overnight hours.

Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...
TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40619204 39799141 39249201 38739311 38159403
            37089502 36189669 35949815 36029963 36210114
            36910193 37710128 38719921 39279745 39829575
            40099453