802
AWUS01 KWNH 041317
FFGMPD
FLZ000-041715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1555
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
815 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of the FL Gold Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041315Z - 041715Z

Summary...A band of heavy rainfall could continue to lead to
hourly rain amounts to 3" and additional local totals to 5" over
the next several hours.

Discussion...Over the past 2-3 hours, there`s been a convective
uptick over portions of east-central Broward County FL in
association with a band of convection extending into the region
from the adjacent Atlantic.  Other isolated thunderstorms are seen
over southern Broward and Miami-Dade Counties.  Precipitable water
values of 2" exist in the area per the morning sounding from
Sweetwater/Miami.  ML CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalyses.
 While effective bulk shear is under 25 kts, the inflow at 850 hPa
(15 kts) slightly exceeds the 850-400 hPa mean wind (10 kts) which
is aiding precipitation efficiency.

The 06z REFS appears delayed on its development of this heavy rain
threat, so there`s uncertainty regarding future evolution; used a
4 hour window for this discussion.  While bands are able to
develop in or near portions of Broward County this morning, hourly
rain amounts to 3" with additional local totals to 5" would be
possible.  Flash flooding is most likely in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   26378054 26368002 25368020 25138044 25288055