398
AWUS01 KWNH 300047
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-300545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1029
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
846 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico, west Texas, Texas South
Plains/Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300045Z - 300545Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible as
convection emanates eastward from the southern High Plains this
evening.

Discussion...Maturing convection over New Mexico has gradually
organized into clusters and linear segments while approaching the
NM/TX border region and portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle.  The
storms were moving eastward toward a progressively more moist
airmass (1.6 inch PW values) and sufficient instability (1500 J/kg
SBCAPE) to sustain convection for at least 2-4 more hours.
Kinematic fields feature relatively weak steering flow aloft,
allowing for weak easterly/southeasterly cell movement driven
partially by local convective organization/evolution.  Areas of 1
inch/hr rain rates are already estimated per MRMS, and the overall
radar presentation seems to suggest that mergers will gradually
become more frequent, increasing rain rates locally.

As cells move eastward deeper into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
and Texas South Plains, they will migrate over regions of the
country that have FFG thresholds in the 2-3 inch/hr range (locally
lower).  Furthermore, soil moisture profiles are a bit on the dry
side, suggestive of soils that can handle some of the impending
rainfall.  The overall scenario suggests potential for isolated
flash flooding to occur especially in any sensitive/low-lying
spots.  The risk may be locally maximized where mergers can
prolong heavy rainfall and boost local rain rates.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37050121 36400081 34510129 31910124 31690224
            32120330 32890368 33940389 34670445 35820470
            36400386 36890223