541
AWUS01 KWNH 021504
FFGMPD
FLZ000-021910-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1549
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1003 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...central to south-central FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021502Z - 021910Z

Summary...Areas of slow moving heavy rain will continue a threat
for flash flooding across central FL, some of which may continue
to be locally significant, over the next 2-4 hours. A southward
development of heavy rain will be possible into the early
afternoon.

Discussion...A few areas of slow moving heavy rain with embedded
thunderstorms continue to impact portions of central FL with peak
hourly rainfall of 4 to 5 inches over the past couple of hours
just south of Melbourne. A remnant MCV was located just east of
Tampa Bay with a focused axis of nearly stationary surface to near
surface convergence extending eastward to between Melbourne and
Vero Beach. In addition, a nearly stationary mid-level vorticity
max was positioned about 90 miles WSW of Fort Myers, FL.

Low level easterly winds of 20-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer are
expected to maintain over the next few hours with areas of
mesoscale low level convergence aiding in the production of slow
moving convective cores capable of 2 to 4+ inches in an hour.
MLCAPE from the 14Z SPC mesoanalysis and the 12Z soundings from
Tampa and Miami showed a gradient extending across the south
central Peninsula from northeast to southwest, along with PWs near
2 inches. The highest rates should focus near this gradient in
instability over the next 2-4 hours but of particular concern is
slow movement of nearly stationary supercell-like structures
embedded within the complex near the east coast of FL within the
zone of low level convergence. The RAP shows this axis weakening
over the next few hours, but that remains uncertain at this point.
In addition, there is some potential for cells to build farther
south into the instability across southwestern FL through 18Z/19Z,
between the MCV near Tampa Bay and the vorticity max offshore.

Despite the uncertainty beyond 18Z or so, there is high confidence
in the short term for continued areas of flash flooding due to
high rain rates, with some significant impacts across any urban
centers.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   28868104 28788029 28227994 27447979 26737988
            26068030 25668103 25638172 26118228 27258281
            28018270