359
AWUS01 KWNH 240055
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-240545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1370
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...West of Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240049Z - 240545Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms capable of 2.5"/hr continue to
develop west of the southern Appalachians this evening before
diminishing in the overnight. Scattered flash flooding should
continue over eastern Tennessee and more localized over eastern
Kentucky and central West Virginia.

DISCUSSION...As of 0830Z...Scattered heavy thunderstorms continue
over eastern Tennessee with isolated thunderstorms and lingering
widespread showers from eastern Kentucky up through central West
Virginia along a surface trough in a warm sector east of an upper
low over southern Ohio. A channel of moisture (PW of 1.4" and 1.5"
into eastern Tennessee) and instability (MUCAPE of 1000 J/kg in
eastern TN and 500 J/kg in eastern KY into WV. Generally light
deep layer flow will maintain slow movement and allow propagation
to continue. Hourly rates up to 2.5" will continue to promote
scattered flash flooding in eastern Tennessee and rates around
1"/hr in KY and WV.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs favor an additional 1-3" over eastern TN
and up to 1.5" farther north. Efficient warm rain processes and
slow motion will continue to promote excessive rainfall,
particularly over sensitive terrain and urban areas. This area is
sensitive from prolonged repeating rains.

A general downward trend in activity should continue through the
overnight as instability is exhausted.

Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38768157 38628077 38208051 37268110 35498381
            35208520 35708514 37148383 38178287 38588209