431
AWUS01 KWNH 260216
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-260815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1524
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern NM...Western TX and TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260215Z - 260815Z

SUMMARY...Locally expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will maintain a threat for flash flooding over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR/WV satellite imagery suite shows
some cooling convective tops across areas of central and eastern
NM and parts of far western TX as a deep layer trough and
associated closed low ejects gradually eastward across the region.

Stronger mid/upper-level forcing/ascent overspreading the region
will be interacting with a rather unstable airmass pooled across
especially south-central/southeast NM and far western TX in
conjunction with strong 850/700 mb moisture flux that continues to
surge north across the southern High Plains. Early evening MLCAPE
values of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg are in place which combined with 30
to 40 kts of effective bulk shear and the height falls should help
support some cell-organization over the next few hours, with some
additional expansion of convective activity expected this evening.

The instability and moisture transport (850/700 mb moisture flux
anomalies of +2 to +4 sigma) will support areas of high rainfall
rates, and the multi-model hires CAMs support some 1 to 2
inch/hour rainfall rates with the stronger and more focused
thunderstorms. Some some spotty additional storm total amounts of
2 to 3 inches is not out of the question tonight. The area of
greatest concern for these heavier totals will tend to be across
areas of east-central NM and northeastward into the TX Panhandle
where some cell-training concerns will exist.

These additional rains will maintain a threat for flash flooding
over the next several hours as a result. The normally dry washes
and burn scar locations will again be at greatest risk for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36580312 36430189 35660148 34620175 32940270
            31750321 30900376 30600448 30510571 30930652
            31260677 32260675 33760642 34960640 35880579
            36410455