031
AWUS01 KWNH 070857
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0347
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast TX...Southern OK...Far
Southwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070855Z - 071455Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding are expected going
into the morning hours across portions of north-central to
northeast TX, southern OK and far southwest AR. This will be
driven by the arrival and localized persistence of areas of
showers and thunderstorms with extreme rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...Well-defined vort energy advancing around the base of
the upper trough/closed low over the southern Plains will continue
to interact with an anomalous pool of tropical moisture situated
around the southern and eastern flanks of the upper-level height
falls. Much of the moisture continues to have a dual-feed, with an
axis in the low-levels from the Gulf, and a long-fetch axis from
the eastern Pacific seen in the mid and upper-levels of the
vertical column. In fact, PWs across the region remain as high as
1.8 to 2.2 inches based on the latest RAP and GPS-derived data.

This moisture and energy coupled with MLCAPE values of 1000 to
1500 J/kg will continue to favor relatively slow-moving and
locally repeating areas of showers and thunderstorms with extreme
rainfall rates. Over the last several hours, the southern suburbs
of the Dallas metropolitan area have been seeing rainfall rates as
high 2 to 3 inches/hour. Some MRMS-derived rainfall totals over
the last 6 hours have been on the order of 3 to 5 inches.

The latest hires multi-model consensus including recent HRRR and
RRFS solutions support locally an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain
through mid-morning. Generally the greatest potential should tend
to be over north-central to northeast TX, but areas of southern OK
just north of the Red River may see some redevelopment of
thunderstorms in association with a vort center advancing east
from northwest TX. Downstream areas of far southwest AR may also
see impacts from these clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
later this morning.

Given the earlier rainfall overnight, and additional potential
going through the early to mid-morning hours, additional areas of
flash flooding are expected.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34629608 34419452 33699377 32879389 32219483
            32039617 32109759 32609892 33249952 34039920
            34379844 34579729