113
AWUS01 KWNH 301728
FFGMPD
TXZ000-302100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1033
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
128 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Areas affected...eastern TX into fa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301726Z - 302100Z

SUMMARY...Locally high rain rates will likely continue for at
least another 1-2 hours, possibly extending through 21Z (4 PM CDT)
for portions of eastern TX. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will
be most likely, though the potential for higher hourly totals in
excess of 2 to 3 inches will remain a concern.

DISCUSSION...Localized heavy rain continued over eastern TX as of
17Z with one cluster over the Piney Woods region and a second a
little east of Dallas. Convergence along an elevated boundary,
located in the 925-850 mb layer, was focusing slow moving
thunderstorms with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 2-3 inches
(Piney Woods) and 1-2 inches (east of Dallas).

Near Dallas, a 925-850 mb low has formed with slow forecast
movement toward the east, along with localized low level
convergence and thunderstorms likely to continue ahead of the low
track. Meanwhile, RAP forecasts have been consistent with
near-dissipation of the low level convergence axis that extended
southeastward from near Dallas into far southwestern LA within the
next 2-3 hours which should allow for a disruption to the ongoing
areas of heavy rain over the Piney Woods region..

However, visible satellite imagery showed growing cumulus along
the upper TX coast into Montgomery and Liberty counties. Here,
MLCAPE was estimated to be 1000-2000 J/kg along with 2.1 to 2.4
inches of precipitable water. A few slow moving thunderstorms are
likely to develop over the next couple of hours with slow movement
given weak deeper layer mean flow over central TX to the upper TX
coast.

While flash flooding is considered likely in the short term for
locations farther north, the flash flood threat related to
expected thunderstorms over the TX Coastal Plain is less certain
and may remain highly isolated. For these southern areas, the
greatest flash flood threat will likely setup where overlap occurs
with nearby urban areas, possibly including the Houston metro.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...OUN...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   33689635 33419524 32579447 31529388 30529376
            30109384 29459420 29129487 28789578 29109599
            29719611 30839614 31679632 32259668 32699715
            33439715