083
AWUS01 KWNH 310049
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-310643-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1035
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Areas affected...a large part of west Texas, portions of eastern
New Mexico, and the Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310043Z - 310643Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists, although the
extent of this threat will depend on convective coverage and
evolution through 06Z/1a CDT.

Discussion...Isolated to scattered convection continues across the
discussion area this evening.   The greatest concentration of
storms exists over southwest Texas (near/southwest of Fort
Stockton), where slow-moving storms have evolved into a linear
structure/small complex.  Additional storms were located near
Roswell, north of Lubbock, and in the northeastern Texas Panhandle
near Canadian and Perryton.  The cells were in a favorable
environment for flash flooding, with 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE persisting
despite a loss of daytime heating.  PW values of 1.5 inch (highest
across eastern portions of the discussion) were also favoring
heavy rain, while weak steering flow aloft (generally less than 10
knots) was fostering slow storm motions and local rain rates
exceeding 1 inch/hr at times.  A few of these cells were
persisting in sensitive terrain (across southwest Texas), while
others were falling over areas of the Texas South Plains that
received 2-5 inch rainfall totals last night and have current FFG
thresholds in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range).  Ground conditions are
somewhat more susceptible to runoff compared to yesterday.

The overall flash flood threat this evening will depend on the
coverage of convection over the next 6 hours.  Some uptick of
coverage has been noted over the past hour areawide, although
sources of forcing for ascent are not obvious per mesoanalyses and
satellite imagery.  Nevertheless, CAMs remain persistent on at
least isolated coverage of storms, and an isolated flash flood
risk seems apparent.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...EWX...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36600140 36519997 34830014 31890104 30660056
            30010209 29140332 29590428 30090449 31090422
            31970503 32630568 35250531 36480441