021
AWUS01 KWNH 011403
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-012000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1420
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Western/Central to Northeast
KS...Northern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011402Z - 012000Z

SUMMARY...Expanding areas of locally slow-moving and training
showers and thunderstorms will driving a general increase in the
threat of flash flooding over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV satellite imagery shows the
gradually ejection of a deep layer trough and associated closed
low across the central and southern Plains. This will continue to
drive a significant threat for heavy rainfall across portions of
central High Plains, lower MO Valley and into the middle MS Valley
going into this afternoon.

Strong low to mid-level frontogenetical forcing and a pivoting
deformation zone will combine with strong low-level moisture
convergence north of the surface low center to maintain the axis
of heavy rainfall along with embedded convection across far
southeast CO and across sizable areas of western and central KS.

The latest RAP analysis shows MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000+ J/kg
across much of western and central KS, and this corridor in
particular will be a focus for some pockets of stronger and fairly
slow-moving convection over the next several hours which is
strongly supported by the latest hires CAM guidance.

Areas farther downstream across northeast KS through northern MO
will be in close proximity to a strong frontal zone, and this
boundary will continue to be a focus for convection given the nose
of a very moist 40+ kt southerly low-level jet and axis of PWs
reaching 1.75 to 2.0 inches. The combination of strong warm
advection and at least modest instability will facilitate locally
heavier rainfall rates across these areas.

The latest HRRR guidance and consensus of 06Z HREF/REFS solutions
suggest generally the heaviest rainfall totals impacting central
KS going through the early to mid-afternoon hours as the overall
deformation zone and axis of heavy rainfall tends to cyclonically
pivot on itself while favoring areas of persistence.

Some rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected with the
aforementioned convective elements, but the slow cell-motions and
localized cell-training may yield some additional 3 to 4+ inch
rainfall totals.

Wet antecedent conditions and the additional rainfall potential
over the next several hours will foster an increase in the threat
for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DVN...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...LSX...OAX...
PUB...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40599194 39999148 38999220 38539408 38209627
            37849860 37390019 37170099 37100188 37430265
            38020280 38500262 39080197 39530054 39799838
            39919611