998
AWUS01 KWNH 130541
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-131140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1031
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
140 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern IN...Central KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130540Z - 131140Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity redeveloping across
portions of southern IN and into central KY may result in some
additional concerns for flash flooding going through early this
morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite and radar imagery is showing
some thunderstorm activity redeveloping across portions of the OH
Valley involving southern IN and central KY. Recent cooling cloud
top trends suggest potential for upscale growth of a northwest to
southeast oriented band of convection over the next few hours.

The activity is focusing in an elevated fashion north of a
stationary front and along an instability gradient, with MUCAPE
values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Warm air advection and
moisture/instability transport associated with a convergent 20 to
30 kt west-southwest low-level jet will favor some convective
sustenance and potential for some upscale growth over the next few
hours.

This is supported by some of the 00Z HREF guidance, although there
is some spatial spread with the details and certainly the amounts.
The latest radar and satellite trends coupled with PWs being up
around 1.75 inches suggest some localized 2 inch/hour rainfall
rates will be possible. Some alignment of the activity with the
deeper layer steering flow suggests some localized cell-training
concerns over the next few hours.

This will support some spotty rainfall amounts through early this
morning of 2 to 4 inches. The 00Z HREF does support some locally
elevated 3-hour FFG exceedance probabilities in especially central
KY near areas that saw heavy rainfall recently, but the overall
footprint for additional heavy rainfall does remain somewhat
uncertain. In general, the flash flood threat through early this
morning should tend to be fairly localized, but the convective
trends over the next few hours will be closely monitored.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39428714 39388606 38898471 38248359 37568353
            37188425 37318544 37918675 38268728 38878756