386
AWUS01 KWNH 021401
FFGMPD
TXZ000-021900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1428
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to South-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021400Z - 021900Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and very efficient showers along with a few
thunderstorms will continue to foster a threat of additional flash
flooding going through early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a broken
axis of low to medium-topped convection in close proximity to a
stationary front draped generally north to south across
north-central to south-central TX.

Relatively focused low-level moisture convergence along with weak
shallow instability and weak low to mid-level vort energy riding
along the front are the primary drivers of the current activity.
Although there is also some weak right-entrance region upper jet
dynamics overhead that is likely providing at least some modest
deeper layer ascent. MUCAPE values are generally only around 500
J/kg, with somewhat greater values farther south toward the Lower
Rio Grande Valley and adjacent areas of south-central TX.

The PWs though are quite high with values of 2.0 to 2.25 inches,
and with the warm/saturated low to mid-levels of the column
associated with the shallow convection, a very high-level of
rainfall efficiency is in place.

This will continue to support areas of 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall
rates, with rather slow cell-motions. The ongoing areas of
convection should continue to remain relatively concentrated near
the stationary front at least going through early this afternoon,
and this may result in some additional 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals
locally.

This may drive some additional areas of flash flooding over the
next several hours as a result, and especially for the more
sensitive flood-prone urban areas.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32799751 32359657 30769692 28499802 27599857
            27319913 27389988 28000023 28650000 29489964
            30469923 31679897 32439836