101
AWUS01 KWNH 062139
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-070337-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0343
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
538 PM EDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of west-central into north-central Texas
and south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062137Z - 070337Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a flash flood threat
across the discussion area through at least 03Z/10p central.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to focus along a
general axis form near Decatur south-southwest to near San Angelo,
with a separate cluster of storms noted west of Ardmore, OK.
Convection in northern portions of this axis near Decatur was
fairly progressive, which has kept rain rates relatively low
(around 1 inch/hr or less).  Northeast of this axis (near
Ardmore), local backbuilding has led to spotty rain rates
exceeding 2 inches/hr.  Rain rates remain limited with
southwestward extent toward west-central Texas mainly due to the
more scattered, progressive nature of storms (with motions toward
the northeast at around 25 knots).  Flash flood potential has
remained isolated so far in this regime.

Over time though, models/observations suggest that convection may
begin to focus/concentrate along an axis from near Fort Worth to
near San Angelo.  An outflow from more mature convection off to
the northeast of this region may stall, while ascent from a
mid-level low centered over the TX Panhandle, low-level confluence
ahead of the convection, and abundant moisture/instability should
result in more focused axes of training over time.  Orientation of
convection more parallel to steering flow aloft may also aid in
training convection over time as well. Should this scenario unfold
as models/obs suggest, rain rates should increase into the 2
inch/hr range in spots and locally exceed FFG thresholds -
especially between Fort Worth and San Angelo. Deep convection and
heavier rain rates may also eventually reach the more of the DFW
metro are as well.  Flash flooding is possible in this regime on
an isolated basis over the next couple hours, but this risk may
increase with progression into the evening.  A more isolated flash
flood risk may also occur in south-central Oklahoma, though it
appears that convection west of Ardmore may eventually merge with
faster-moving, forward-propagating convection over north-central
Texas that may temper this threat somewhat.  Flash flooding is
still possible in this area pending convective trends.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35589629 34249570 32089630 30999772 30509999
            31310103 32820062 32769939 33199852 34779828
            35509745