616
AWUS01 KWNH 010744
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-011340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1539
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010740Z - 011340Z

Summary...A landfalling atmospheric river will continue to spread
moderate to heavy rainfall over Arizona, prompting a flood/flash
flood risk.

Discussion...Over the past few hours, the landfalling atmospheric
river across the Desert Southwest has resulted in a dramatic
increase in low- to mid-level southwesterly flow into portions of
Arizona.  Widespread precipitation (heavy at times) has resulted,
along with spots of 0.25-0.5 inch/hr rain rates at times.  These
rain rates are expected to continue as flow remains oriented
perpendicular to the Mogollon Rim, enabling orographic ascent to
aid in local enhancement of rain rates.  The ongoing scenario will
change little through 13Z, with heavy rainfall gradually filling
tributaries/low-lying areas and prompting excessive runoff.  Local
6-hr FFG thresholds should be exceeded in a few spots.
Flood/flash flood potential will continue through at least 13Z
this morning.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36441361 36241259 35281148 34720991 34080930
            33060920 31920987 31621101 32131265 32931439
            35941430