065
AWUS01 KWNH 260326
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-260825-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1382
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Areas affected...North-Central Kansas into parts of
south-central/eastern Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260325Z - 260825Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms over north-central Kansas
tonight with estimated rainfall rates up to 2.5"/hr may train over
similar areas and move into parts of south-central/eastern
Nebraska. This could lead to scattered rainfall totals over 3" and
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and GOES-East IR satellite imagery
depicts strengthening thunderstorms across north-central KS ahead
of a lifting mid-level shortwave/MCV. MRMS estimates hourly rates
briefly near 3" within this complex as it slowly pushes northward.
PWs within the area range from 1.75-1.9" and are above the 99th
climatological percentile per the NAEFS SAT. Additionally, MLCAPE
remains above 500 J/kg, but is greater across north-central KS and
much lower into eastern NE. Therefore, rates are expected to be
highest in north-central KS and into nearby adjacent NE, with
coverage of moderate rainfall becoming greater as the night goes
on in central/eastern NE, except without the higher rates
necessary for flash flooding.

With these parameters in place, as well as mean-layer flow out of
the south-southwest and parallel to the current axis of
thunderstorms across north-central KS, the greatest short-term
flash flood threat is across north-central KS. Scattered flash
flooding is possible where rainfall totals exceed 2-3" given the
local FFG in the area. Lastest MRMS suggests this has already been
achieved near Osborne, KS and HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities
for at least 2" through 09Z are 20-30%. However, coverage of these
amounts are expected to remain low enough for only isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding within the highlighted
region and a greater focus in north-central KS as previously noted.

Snell

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON   41769765 41499663 40709666 39829723 39129811
            39049901 39339945 40159949 41229881