Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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850
AWUS01 KWNH 162050
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-170130-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0710
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Areas affected...Eastern Michigan into nNorthern Ohio
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 162049Z - 170130Z
Summary...Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms should increase in
coverage into the evening over eastern Michigan and northern Ohio.
Flash flooding is considered possible through 01Z.
Discussion...Regional radar imagery depicts scattered coverage of
heavy thunderstorms around Saginaw Bay with more isolated activity
into northern Ohio. Convective training/repeating has occurred
with 2"/hr rainfall. As this activity shifts east, FFG generally
lowers below 1.5/hr, so the risk for flash flooding increases with
time.
Recent CAMs including the HRRR and experimental RRFS are not
handling the existing activity well. However 1.8" to 2.1" PW and
SBCAPE of 2000 J/kg should allow for further heavy development
over eastern MI and northern OH. There is organized activity
currently over WI and IL that will shift east over MI and OH
overnight, so further MPDs are expected.
Jackson
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 45028316 43978237 43048211 42478255 41818287
41718280 41558210 41228203 40738260 40658378
41548463 42848489 43848485 44818426