930
AWUS01 KWNH 012152
FFGMPD
FLZ000-020300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1546
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012151Z - 020300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr
will continue through the evening. Although there continues to be
uncertainty in the placement of heaviest rainfall, some areas will
likely receive an additional 3-5+" of rain, leading to renewed and
additional flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this aftn depicts a large
area of heavy rain with embedded convection pivoting around the
southern and central Florida Peninsula. Embedded within this, an
MCV is clearly evident rotating over Lake Okeechobee. This MCV is
located within broad mid-level troughing and enhanced jet-level
diffluence, suggesting deep synoptic ascent is also in place. In
addition, the thermodynamics are extremely favorable for heavy
rain with PWs measured via GPS of around 2.1 inches, or well above
the 90th percentile for the date, with 1000-850mb and 850-700mb
LPW exceeding the 95th percentile according to CIRA. This is in
response to persistent easterly flow off the Atlantic, and where
MLCAPE remains above 1500 J/kg along the eastern Peninsula, MRMS
hourly rainfall has been well above 2 inches.

It has already been extremely wet across the Peninsula today,
reflected by NSSL QPE that has been 2-4 inches in many areas, with
locally more than 7 inches measured via mesonet sites near the
town of Okeechobee. As the MCV continues to pivot slowly to the
WNW, accelerated 850mb inflow from the Atlantic reaching 25-30 kts
will help to drive locally enhanced ascent and continue waves of
heavy rainfall. While there is some uncertainty among the various
CAMs as to the placement of the heaviest rainfall through the
evening, the focus will likely be just east of the MCV due to the
aforementioned accelerated inflow overlapping the highest
instability. Corfidi vectors aligned generally anti-parallel to
the mean 0-6km winds indicate a high likelihood of training, and
with rainfall rates that could briefly touch 4"/hr (HRRR), both
the HREF and REFS indicate a 30-70% chance of at least 3" of
additional rainfall, with locally 5-7" possible.

Although the soils across Florida are generally more permeable to
heavy rainfall, this event appears favorable for more significant
runoff capable of flash flood impacts. Soils are already saturated
from today`s rainfall, and this is reflected by high percentiles
in both the 0-40cm layer (98%) and 0-10cm RSM (60-80%). This
indicates that any additional rainfall should quickly transition
to runoff, even outside of urban areas, and for this reason the
risk for flash flooding is likely as thunderstorms continue to
repeat into the evening.

Weiss

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   29138157 29038097 28678058 28038042 27458011
            27358008 26697989 25977998 25478058 25558118
            25908175 26368221 26778236 27278267 27698288
            28338288 29038241