Flash Flood Guidance
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AWUS01 KWNH 110328
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-110826-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1243
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1127 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Upper Ohio Valley
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 110326Z - 110826Z
Summary...Showers and thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding
over partially saturated soils near the OH/WV/KY border towards
09z. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" remain possible.
Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue in the vicinity of
a declining instability pool across portions of southern OH and WV
within a zone of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values of
1.8-2.1" exist here per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of 40 kts
is leading to some level of organization. Activity continues to
be surface-based; ML CAPE across eastern KY and southwest WV is
500-1000 J/kg.
The guidance shows a signal for heavy rainfall in this region
towards 09z. Portions of the area have seen local maxima in the
6-9" range since Wednesday afternoon, at least partially
saturating area soils. With the available ingredients supporting
hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" where cells can manage to train
and/or backbuild, flash flooding remains possible.
Roth
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39448249 39107963 38238023 37758100 37488338
38218425 39268460