587
AWUS01 KWNH 300307
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300906-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1528
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1106 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Areas affected...northern/northeastern Kansas, far southeastern
Nebraska, far northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300306Z - 300906Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms could produce local 2 inch/hr
rain rates across the discussion area tonight.  Isolated/spotty
instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...In the past hour or so, a band of strong convection
has materialized generally along an axis from near Hays to near
Marysville and the KS/NE border near Falls City, NE.  This
convection is elevated and rooted along a stationary front along
the same axis.  Meanwhile, 1.3 inch PW values and 1500 J/kg MUCAPE
was supporting locally heavy rainfall with deep convective
updrafts, while modest wind fields aloft (around 20-25 knots --
parallel to the aforementioned stationary front) was enabling
slow-movement of those cells and rain rates exceeding 1.5 inch/hr
at spots (per MRMS).  These rates were falling on ground
conditions characterized by approx 2 inch/hr FFG thresholds,
suggestive of isolated flash flood potential in the near term.

Observations/guidance both suggest that these storms will continue
to linger and move slowly through the next 4-6 hours.  Modest
upscale growth/propagation may enable development eastward toward
more of northwestern MO over time.  Local rain rates of 1.5-2
inch/hr can be expected where convection is most persistent, and
local 3 inch totals cannot be ruled out.  Isolated instances of
flash flooding are possible in this scenario.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON   40729561 40689361 40269314 39699311 39279459
            39049748 39619904 40339776