345
AWUS01 KWNH 141747
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0433
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma through
central/southwest Arkansas and far northeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141746Z - 142300Z

Summary...An intensifying convective complex over eastern Oklahoma
will sweep through the discussion area and pose a risk of areas of
1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times.  These rates are expected to
cause localized/isolated flash flood issues through 23Z/6p CDT.

Discussion...Over the past couple hours, a linear MCS has
materialized over eastern Oklahoma from near Muskogee to near Ada.
 Cells within this complex were moving east-southeastward at
approximately 25-30 knots, which has mostly kept peak rain rates
at around 1-2 inches/hr (just shy of FFG thresholds) so far this
afternoon.

As storms migrate downstream through the afternoon and early
evening, a few considerations for increasing flash flood potential
exist, including: 1) deepening convection ahead of the complex,
which should allow for a few areas of mergers to prolong/increase
rain rates above 2 inches/hr and 2) the orientation of the complex
itself - which may allow for localized training on occasion.  FFG
thresholds should be breached in a few areas of this complex moves
through, with low-lying/sensitive areas of particular concern for
flash flooding.

Over time, a few of these storms may reach areas just north/east
of Little Rock that experienced 3-5 inch rainfall totals just a
few hours ago.  These areas may also be locally sensitive and
prone to flooding.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36119511 36059402 35539176 34769128 33739158
            32959393 33609641 34339741 35069773 35569601