945
AWUS01 KWNH 141753
FFGMPD
TXZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0717
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
153 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Areas affected...Big Bend Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141752Z - 142200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will persist over the Big Bend
area of Texas this afternoon. Several instances of flash flooding
are likely from rainfall that could exceed 2"/hr.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730Z, a low/former MCV is southeast of Del Rio
with what appears to be a stationary front extending west across
Big Bend NP where scattered heavy thunderstorms are apparent via
satellite and lightning detection (radar coverage is rather sparse
in the Big Bend). Abundant moisture with PW around 1.8" and
sufficient instability with SBCAPE above 1500 J/kg are present.
This area is west of a low level inverted trough with 850mb flow
from the northeast which is where elevated moisture persists.
There may be little motion to this frontal boundary until much
later this afternoon despite a westward trend in the low level
features. Repeating heavy thunderstorms would bring further flash
flooding to this remote and rugged region.

Recent HRRR runs are rather underdone for coverage - its warm
start utilizes radar coverage for initialization, so presumably
that is limiting how much is present to begin with. Recent RRFS
runs feature a frontal line shifting south over the Big Bend, but
again doesn`t realize the ongoing activity. Given the ingredients,
rainfall rates of 2"/hr are possible and the risk for repeating
could mean additional 1-4" rainfall over much of this area through
the rest of the afternoon. Flash flooding is considered likely.

Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   30550416 30220238 29610206 29150251 28800340
            29540484 30240510