033
AWUS01 KWNH 300111
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0274
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
910 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...northern MS into western TN and eastern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300107Z - 300700Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible through 07Z
from slow moving thunderstorms from western TN into northern MS
and far eastern AR. Potential for hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches
will exist.

DISCUSSION...01Z radar imagery across the Lower MS Valley showed
scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity of I-40 from eastern AR
into western TN. Many of the cells were slow moving with peak
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) per MRMS
estimates. Water vapor imagery showed the activity was focused
near a smaller scale vorticity max over southwest TN, part of a
larger upper-level trough axis/closed low over the region, slowly
advancing east. The environment remained moist and unstable with
MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg and PWs of 1.8 to 2.1 inches via 00Z
SPC mesoanalysis data and neighboring sounding data.

Over the next few hours, areas of slow moving thunderstorms are
likely to continue given the remaining instability and upper level
forcing in place. Mean steering flow is rather weak, ~10 kt over
north-central MS and less than 10 kt along the AR/TN border, which
will allow for slow moving cells. Some modest nocturnal
strengthening of 850 mb winds is expected over northern MS through
06Z (10-15 kt), which may act to support backbuilding/upstream
development of any thunderstorms across the region. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches should be common with any thunderstorms,
but isolated hourly rainfall totals near 3 inches cannot be ruled
out, especially with any training.

While the occurrence of these high rain rates should remain
localized/isolated in coverage, there is enough of a concern to
highlight this potential for flash flooding over the region, which
is expected to continue through 07Z.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   36448926 36278813 35478802 34218833 33358874
            32908923 32858976 32929021 33149060 33369086
            34019101 35049086 36018969