291
AWUS01 KWNH 250226
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250825-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1522
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1025 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Areas affected...Much of NM...Far Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250225Z - 250825Z

SUMMARY...Bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
into the overnight hours. Additional areas of flash flooding will
continue to be possible, and especially around the more sensitive
burn scar and dry wash locations.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV satellite imagery shows a deep layer upper
trough and associated closed low over the broader Southwest U.S.
continuing to very slowly move off to the east. Stronger dynamics
aloft/divergent flow ahead of these height falls interacting with
a channel of moist/unstable air lifting north across the southern
High Plains and into the southern Rockies will continue to
facilitate bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms going into the
overnight hours.

MUCAPE values this evening remain elevated ahead of a
quasi-stationary front with values across central/southern NM and
far western TX as high as high 1000 to 1500 J/kg. This instability
combined with rather strong low-level moisture convergence and
deeper layer shear should favor some persistence of relatively
well-organized bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall rates with the more organized convective cells will still
continue to be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour. Locally
slow cell-motions and some periodic cases of cell-training may
still foster some additional rainfall totals of 2 to 2.5 inches.
This is consistent with the latest multi-model hires CAM consensus.

These additional rains may foster some additional areas of flash
flooding over the next several hours. The greatest potential for
impacts will continue to be across the more sensitive burn scar
locations and around the normally dry washes, but in some cases
the streamflows are already elevated, so the additional rains will
only encourage a persistence of some ongoing runoff problems.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37130470 36960383 36730347 35830310 34460316
            32840344 31660381 30800440 30470525 30750608
            31590679 33180696 34720666 36100653 36950579