421
AWUS01 KWNH 231838
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-240030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0832
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern UT...Western and Central
CO...Western and Northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231837Z - 240030Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be
expected once again today across the central Rockies and adjacent
areas of the Intermountain West. Isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating along with anomalous monsoonal
moisture across the central Rockies and adjacent areas of the
Intermountain West will once again promote at least scattered
areas of showers and thunderstorms today that will be capable of
locally high rainfall rates. Already there are pockets of
convective initiation occurring across central and western CO on
down through northern and western NM. GOES-W based LightningCast
data shows areas of central and eastern UT will also be seeing
convective initiation soon.

A modest shortwave trough/mid-level weakness is noted in satellite
imagery across western CO, with some north/south extension of this
energy. This will combine with the diurnal heating cycle to
promote an expansion of these scattered areas of monsoonal
convection over the next several hours. Differential heating
boundaries and orographic ascent over areas of higher terrain will
also facilitate upscale convective evolution.

SBCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are already in place, with PWs
running as much as 2 to 3+ standard deviations above normal. This
combined with orographics should again help drive some rainfall
rates of 1 to 2+ inches/hour. Some spotty 2 to 3+ inch totals
cannot be ruled out, and there is support for this from some of
the hires models CAMs including the NAM Conest and the RRFS.

Overall, the convective footprint should not be as widespread
today as compared to yesterday since the level of forcing is not
quite as strong, but there will be at least scattered coverage of
convection that should drive concerns for isolated to scattered
areas of flash flooding. Any burn scar locations along with the
more sensitive slot canyons and normally dry washes will be at
greatest risk for seeing flash flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...
TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   41110688 41090548 40360499 38900490 37500473
            36050482 34060615 33390711 33320822 33560902
            34230932 35000921 36030932 36830995 37171101
            37091275 37761295 38791186 39691147 40501081
            40970953 40820861 40900780