098
AWUS01 KWNH 161643
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0458
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Cumberland Plateau & Central Appalachians...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161640Z - 162200Z

SUMMARY...Weakly organized but efficient rainfall producing
convective cells to increase in coverage/intensity over the next
few hours resulting in widely scattered 1.5-2.5" totals and
possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...16z surface observations across the Cumberland
Plateau into the central Appalachians show increasing temperatures
into the mid to upper 70s with isolated 80s further south with
very high dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across much of the area.
 Weak surface ridging along the western upslope of the Cumberland
Plateau with mild troughing from N GA to W VA connects up to the
surface frontal boundary around SW VA with a damming ridge across
western and northwestern VA.  As such, weak capping and sufficient
convergence is breaking out thunderstorm activity particularly
through the Cumberland Gap region of W KY/SW VA/NE TN, though
additional bubbling Cu/TCu expand along the Smokey Mtn Ridge line
to the south with increasing congestion south of the front in
central WV.

Total moisture of 1.75 to 2" is about 2-2.5 standard deviation
from the mean at this time of year and given recent heavy rainfall
has easily evaporated to further enhance rainfall potential.
Given increasing instability toward 1000-1500 J/kg (MLCAPE),
scattered updrafts should be fairly efficient with 13-14Kft of
warm cloud layer processes to support 1.5"/hr rates with strongest
cores perhaps up to 2".  Deep layer westerly steering at about
20kts will keep cells moving, but likely support sufficient
duration for 1-2" totals.  Secondary development along the upwind
flanks of the outflow boundaries may allow for increased duration
for short-term duration for a highly isolated 2.5" total.  Given
overall saturated ground conditions (all but south-central VA, per
NASA SPoRT relative soil moisture values/percentiles) and complex
terrain, above average runoff is expected and may result in widely
scattered incidents of flash flooding increasing in coverage
toward peak heating in the next 3-4 hours.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39098031 38887956 38607926 38077910 37267935
            36158050 35078284 35028406 35168515 36088450
            36658425 37338376 38028289 38578207 38788167