409
AWUS01 KWNH 140811
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-141410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1279
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwest NM & AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140810Z - 141410Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into
the morning hours.  Hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across
the region on the southeast side of a Western Upper Level Trough
and to the northwest of a retrograding upper level low in northern
MX.  Precipitable water values remain 1-1.25" at elevation and
1.75" in the Lower Deserts of AZ.  MU CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg near
the thunderstorms.  Effective bulk shear is 20 kts.

The 00z HREF/REFS suggest that after a relative minimum of
activity over the next couple hours that convection will
reinvigorate across a decent portion of southeast AZ.  There is
some indication in the guidance that a low level boundary/possible
outflow boundary pushes west to northwest into an area of
1000-2000 J/kg MU CAPE, which could cause the forecast uptick.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" remain possible where cells are
stationary, merge, or manage to train.  This would be problematic
in burn scars, urban areas, slot/box canyons, and dry
washes/arroyos.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...DMX...EAX...EPZ...FGZ...FSD...GID...OAX...
PSR...TOP...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   42449662 40269385 39049448 39609640 41399771

35321131 34681063 34540948 35320871 34920758
            33750650 32550653 31280818 31161007 31351115
            32211200 33051254 34741241