796
AWUS01 KWNH 142352
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0437
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
751 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower MS Valley and the Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142350Z - 150300Z

SUMMARY...Multiple bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the next few hours across portions of the Lower MS
Valley and Mid-South from colliding outflow boundaries. A few
additional areas of flash flooding will be possible this evening
as a result.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar and surface data shows elongated bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms impacting areas of the Lower MS Valley and the
Mid-South as convection continues to develop and locally expand in
coverage as a result of colliding outflow boundaries.

Areas that have not seen much in the way of convective overturning
continue to be quite moist and unstable, with MLCAPE values as
high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg with PWs near 2 inches. This is
especially the case over northern MS and some parts of northern AL
where the low-level flow is also rather convergent given the
proximity of low pressure farther north over the Lower OH Valley.

Expect heavy showers and thunderstorms to persist for a few more
hours before the instability becomes sufficiently exhausted for
the activity to begin weakening. Rainfall rates in the short-term
may reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with some spotty totals of 3 to
4+ inches where any cell-training occurs. Radar does show some
cell-training occurring right now across areas of northern MS and
northwest AL. This may foster a few isolated areas of flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34728706 34558587 34098583 33588679 33228920
            32809344 32969464 33489445 34139182 34518907