864
AWUS01 KWNH 080316
FFGMPD
MOZ000-080715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0358
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1114 PM EDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080314Z - 080715Z

SUMMARY...Relatively slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with
extreme rainfall rates will continue to progress gradually off to
the northeast over the next few hours. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+
inches/hour and slow cell-motions may foster some 3 to 5 inches
totals going through 07Z (2AM CDT). Flash flooding is already
occurring and locally significant runoff problems/impacts are
expected over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
well-defined mid to upper-level trough and associated low center
ejecting gradually off to the northeast across southwest MO.
Cold-topped convection with extreme rainfall rates are already
impacting portions of central and southern MO, with a
well-organized axis of showers and thunderstorms oriented
north/south across the region that is ejecting off to the east and
northeast.

MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg are in place along with anomalous PWs
of near 2 inches. A convergent low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts is
already in place which is favoring fairly strong moisture
transport, and it is occurring underneath the left-exit region of
an upper-level jet streak. Deep layer forcing/ascent associated
with this is taking advantage of a very warm/tropical column to
support the ongoing convection with extreme rainfall rate
potential.

Rainfall rates at least in the short-term are likely to be on the
order of 2 to 3 inches/hour, and with the slow cell-motions and
organized nature of the convection in satellite and radar, some
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches will be possible over just the
next few hours.

Flash flooding is ongoing, and locally significant runoff
problems/impacts are expected which may include considerable urban
flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   39759240 39689179 39029124 38049105 37259129
            37039201 37299275 38409309 39339299