356
AWUS01 KWNH 011802
FFGMPD
TXZ000-020000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1422
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...South-Central to Northeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011800Z - 020000Z

SUMMARY...An expansive axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
continues to slowly advance southeastward toward areas of
south-central to northeast TX. High rainfall rates will continue
to promote areas of flash flooding, and locally significant urban
flooding impacts will remain possible.

DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E IR satellite imagery still shows an
axis of cold convective tops associated with an expansive axis of
heavy showers and thunderstorms, with the activity gradually
propagating toward areas of south-central to northeast TX. All of
this continues to be supported by the closed low and associated
upper trough ejecting slowly out across the central and southern
Plains.

No major changes are noted synoptically compared to this morning
across the region as the upper-level flow remains divergent aloft
given the approach of stronger DPVA and related upper-jet
dynamics. This energy will continue to interact with a downstream
airmass that is very moist and unstable. MLCAPE values have risen
to 1500 to 2000 J/kg with the help of boundary layer heating, and
the PWs are on the order of 2.2 to 2.4 inches.

OSPO ALPW data continues to show significant tropical moisture
connections to northeast Mexico and the eastern tropical Pacific,
and this moisture transport focusing ahead of the upstream trough
will continue to drive convection that is extremely efficient with
high WCDs/WBZ heights. Given the instability and modest shear,
some of the more organized and stronger convective cores over the
next several hours will still be capable of producing rainfall
rates as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour.

Additional spotty areas of 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals will be
possible where some cell-training concerns persist going through
early this evening. The latest hires CAMs suggest the ongoing
activity may tend to break apart a bit with one focus over
south-central TX, and another one more toward northeast TX.
However, in general there is a regional threat of additional heavy
rainfall that will continue.

Additional areas of flash flooding are likely, and locally
significant urban flooding impacts remain possible.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   33739551 33509487 32809455 31939456 30639526
            29419612 28529706 27799821 27489927 27519981
            28020020 28710013 29989891 31289769 32979660
            33509625