361
AWUS01 KWNH 160852
FFGMPD
TXZ000-161446-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0738...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
451 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Corrected for Flash Flooding Likely Tag

Areas affected...portions of central and south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160846Z - 161446Z

Summary...Heavy to extreme rain rates continue, with catastrophic
impacts likely extending through at least 12Z/7a central.

Discussion...A couple of clusters of convection have become
dominant across central/south Texas and the Hill Country -- one
very close to Kerrville and another near Uvalde/Bracketville.
These clusters have become nearly stationary due to local
convective processes while remaining in an environment with
sufficient buoyancy/moisture (2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 2 inch PW) and
inflow for intense, persistent updrafts.  Because of this slow
evolution, areas of 2-4 inch/hr rain rates have persisted on a
localized basis for 2-3 hours (local 2-9 inch totals since 02Z),
resulting in extreme and potentially catastrophic impacts.

These trends are likely to continue with only very slow
westward/northward propagation through 12Z/7a central.  Low-level
flow helping to maintain these intense thunderstorm clusters
should remain nearly steady state through that time (per
mesoanalysis/HREF guidance), and may only slowly weaken
thereafter.  This influx into the localized clusters will likely
maintain the moisture/buoyancy needed for extreme rainfall
potential (2-4 inch/hr rates).  Given sensitivities from prior
rainfall in the region, significant to catastrophic impacts are
expected.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   30900012 30849842 29899781 28859848 28269957
            28720043 29580133 29970185 30470133