090
AWUS01 KWNH 250058
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-250500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0844
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
856 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern AZ...Central and Northern
AZ...Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250056Z - 250500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will
continue for at least a few more hours across portions of eastern
AZ through central and northern NM, and also adjacent areas of
southern CO. Lingering areas of high rainfall rates may continue
to drive some additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery continues to
show pockets of cold-topped monsoonal convection across portions
of far eastern AZ and especially central and northern NM. Some
pockets of convection are also persisting locally across southern
CO as well.

Lingering instability with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg will
continue to work in tandem with areas of higher terrain and any
outflow boundaries to support some additional convection for at
least a few more hours. The overall convective footprint should
tend to decrease with the gradual loss of daytime heating and
convective overturning processes, but the radar imagery is
suggesting some subtle hints at an MCV developing over central NM.

This weak MCV will slowly edge westward through this evening and
may tend to help locally maintain a modest dynamical focus for
convection despite the gradual decrease in boundary layer
instability.

Given the depth of monsoonal moisture that is in place and the
available instability, rainfall rates in the near-term will still
be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger cells.
This will thus still support potential for some runoff problems
and isolated areas of flash flooding.


Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38820486 38360432 37550461 35990549 34310566
            33040593 32540694 32790867 33480960 34340985
            35270973 35990941 36520909 37460818 38280705
            38780595