237
AWUS01 KWNH 291758
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-292355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1525
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
157 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Areas affected...southeastern NM into far western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291755Z - 292355Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of far western TX into southeastern NM, including the
Sacramento Mountains through the early evening. The expected rain
rates include peak hourly rainfall of 1.0 to 1.5 inches along with
15 minute rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50+ inches.

DISCUSSION...Precipitable water (PW) values have increased up to a
few tenths of an inch across southeastern NM and far western TX
compared to 24 hours ago via the Blended TPW imagery product but
more significant increases have occurred into portions of central
to southern TX as noted on all layers of the OSPO Advected LPW
product and the 12Z DRT sounding with a 0.6 to 0.7 inch increase
in PW since 12Z Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Day Cloud Phase RGB
imagery from 1730Z showed the early stages of cumulus development
along the higher terrain of southeastern NM among a mixture of
low, mid, and high level clouds within otherwise clear skies
supporting appreciable surface heating. SPC mesoanalysis data from
17Z showed instability was weak over southeastern NM and far
western TX with MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg in a few places,
surrounded by weaker values along with modest inhibition.

With continued daytime heating, MLCAPE is expected to rise into
the afternoon with recent RAP forecasts showing increasing
coverage of 500 to 1000+ J/kg through 21Z. As this occurs, widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, with
the higher terrain of far western TX and the Sacramento Mountains
likely to see convective initiation over the next 1 to 2 hours.
Low level flow across the middle Rio Grande Valley into far
western TX and southeastern NM will maintain an influx of higher
low level moisture into the region while mean steering flow from
the south at 5-15 kt allows for repeating and brief training of
cells. Mid to upper level moisture will also continue to increase
ahead of upper troughing along the coast of California and Mexico.

The environment will support peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 1.5
inches along with embedded 15-minute rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50+
inches. Localized flash flooding will be possible with the
greatest threat across burn scars (most notably in the southern
Sacramento Mountains) as well as low water crossings and areas of
poor drainage throughout southeastern NM into far western TX.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   35100612 34920511 34380481 33430454 32400413
            31780348 31370320 30570340 30380414 30580483
            31130573 32020683 32660708 33360692 34440645