465
AWUS01 KWNH 081214
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0360
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
813 AM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Ozark Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081210Z - 081600Z

SUMMARY...Life-threatening flash flooding is ongoing across
portions of Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma this morning.
Backbuilding and training thunderstorms with a history of 4 in/hr
radar-estimated rainfall rates will continue for another few
hours. Slightly faster southward propagation should gradually
reduce storm total rainfall amounts into Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...An MCS across the Moksarok region consisting of
backbuilding and training convection continues to produce
prodigious amounts of rain this morning. Radar-estimated storm
total rainfall amounts from the Tulsa radar show amounts
approaching 9 inches in southeastern Kansas, northwest of
Columbus. A larger swath of 5 inches or more extends to the
southern and western suburbs of Joplin. Numerous flooding reports
have been received as a result on the ongoing rainfall.

The MCS responsible for these prodigious rainfall amounts has
begun to shift southward over the past couple hours. The storms
have shifted following greatest instability, with amounts over
3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE just to the west of the MCS. PWATs in the
area are around 2 inches around the storms, with values over 1.75
inches to the west of the storms. 850 mb flow is 30-40 kt out of
the southwest, which is very effectively advecting that moisture
and instability into the MCS, allowing it to maintain its strength
and longevity.

Since the main axis of storms, now entering Arkansas, has begun to
drift southward, expect that the heaviest storm total rainfall
amounts will remain into Kansas and Missouri, with lesser amounts
further south into Arkansas. Nevertheless, instantaneous radar
estimated rainfall rates still remain over 2 inches per hour
across the northeast corner of Oklahoma and the southwest corner
of Missouri. Thus, these rates are still more than enough,
especially given the slow movement of the complex, to produce
additional flash flooding. The topography of the Ozark Plateau is
also locally enhancing flooding impacts as the runoff quickly
drains into the local basins. Locally significant and
life-threatening flash flooding will continue for the next few
hours as a result.

Over the next few hours, expect that the storms will gradually
increase their forward speed towards the south, and with daytime
heating well underway, expect the southwesterly advection to
become increasingly disrupted by the localized instability. This
in turn will lead to a diurnally typical weakening of the overall
organization of the storms, so the flooding threat should wane
towards late morning due to these factors. However, until then the
flooding potential will remain significant.

Wegman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37699500 37649466 37199418 37379375 37389332
            37149293 36919260 36439206 35759178 35219219
            34889265 34949339 35269398 35759457 36039485
            36359525 36789561 37299554 37629530