079
AWUS01 KWNH 290412
FFGMPD
NMZ000-290800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1153
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1211 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Areas affected...west-central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290400Z - 290800Z

Summary...Localized heavy rainfall (1"+/hr rates with as much as
1" in 15-min) will support an isolated flash flood risk through
the early overnight.

Discussion...Convection is persisting into the late evening across
portions of west-central NM, just downstream of a strong PV
(potential vorticity) maxima (400-250 mb). As the low-level jet
strengthens modestly over the next several hours with the diurnal
cycle, updrafts may persist as precipitable water values remain
elevated (~1.0", near climatological max levels per ABQ sounding
climatology) supporting localized rainfall rates of 1"+ (with as
much as 1" in 15-min, per MRMS estimates).

New hi-res guidance (00z HREF) supports continued localized heavy
rainfall (1"+/hr) for at least a couple more hours, though latest
observational trends may support at least isolated convection
continuing through about 09z (with a pool of MLCAPE of 250-750
J/kg over the MPD area likely taking some time still to diminish).
40-km HREF 2" exceedance probabilities are as high as 20% through
09z, suggesting localized/isolated instances of flash flooding
will remain possible.

Churchill

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   35910610 35320570 34630610 33980616 33440662
            33500746 34440754 34960773 35490777 35760752
            35900678