209
AWUS01 KWNH 160353
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-160700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1297
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Permian Basin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160351Z - 160700Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall should continue for
another 2-3 hours.  Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals
to 4" are possible which could lead to additional flash flooding.

Discussion...Radar imagery has shown a series of outflow
boundaries converging near the heavy rain area northwest of
Midland TX.  The surface observations show the presence of a
surface low in its vicinity and a corresponding wind convergence
zone.  Some wind convergence is also noted at 700 hPa.
Precipitable water values are 1.5-1.75", quite high for this
region.  CIN has set in; MU CAPE of up to 2000 J/kg exists here.
Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, and activity has appeared to be
primarily pulse in nature.

There is a signal in the 00z HREF/REFS for heavy rainfall in this
area through 06z-07z.  The expectation is for convection to
attempt to gobble up/erode the area of 1000-2000 J/kg MU CAPE over
the next few hours.  This could lead to cell mergers and random
cell training.  Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to
4" should remain possible, which could lead to additional flash
flooding.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34050163 33910114 32780108 32050152 31560290
            31870368 32720316 33360304 33870250