718
AWUS01 KWNH 240552
FFGMPD
TXZ000-241015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1243
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...lower Pecos Valley into north-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240550Z - 241015Z

Summary...An axis of SW to NE thunderstorms is expected to train,
likely resulting in areas of flash flooding from the lower Pecos
Valley into portions of north-central TX through 10Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches should be common, but isolated hourly
totals in excess of 2 inches cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0530Z across TX showed the
recent development of thunderstorms across the lower Pecos River
Valley from SW to NE, crossing I-10 a couple of miles west of
where US-190 meets I-10. Additional thunderstorms extended
northeastward across I-20 between Abilene and Ranger. MLCAPE was
500 to 1500+ J/kg via 05Z SPC mesoanalysis data though most of the
region was capped. The eastward motion of a mid to upper level
closed low/trough to the west has allowed sufficient lift to
overcome a capping inversion noted on the 00Z DRT sounding,
although the capping inversion is likely weaker to the north of
DRT. The storms were located out ahead of a weak Pacific cold
front analyzed over western TX at 05Z, along an axis of
convergence represented the leading edge of low level moisture
transport marked by 30-40 kt of flow per area VAD wind data in the
925-850 mb layer. Some right-entrance region ascent is also likely
present south of a 100 kt jet max located on the eastern side of
the closed low/trough.

Lift ahead of the eastward moving closed low/trough will continue
to support the expansion of numerous thunderstorms over portions
of west-central to north-central TX through 09Z. Thunderstorm
alignment is expected from SW to NE, along the similarly oriented
low level convergence axis, with mean steering flow paralleling
the axis of convergence, supportive of training. Slow overall
movement is especially likely where the leading edge of low level
transport meets the approaching zone of lift from the west, closer
to the Rio Grande, where eastward movement of the axis of forcing
is expected to be slowest. However, coverage of thunderstorms with
southward extent is a bit uncertain. The environment supports
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches but isolated hourly totals over 2
inches should be attainable where thunderstorm axes are slower to
translate east. Areas of flash flooding are likely to result,
although coverage may be somewhat limited across the MPD threat
area through 10Z.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   33599849 33179739 32419736 31389870 30340081
            30000244 30570297 31730151