556
AWUS01 KWNH 300502
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-300930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1030
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
100 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Areas affected...Southeast NM...Western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300500Z - 300930Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to pose a
threat for some additional areas of flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
cold-topped convection continuing to evolve across portions of
southeast NM and western TX. In fact, the trends have shown an
uptick in convective organization with cooling cloud tops over
especially southeast NM where radar confirms a couple of
semi-linear bands of very heavy showers and thunderstorms.

MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg remain in place which coupled
with subtle mid-level vort energy ejecting east out into the
southern High Plains is helping to maintain the ongoing convective
activity. However, cooling boundary layer temperatures and
convective overturning continue to put pressure on the instability
environment, and there should be a gradual weakening of the
overall convective footprint by later in the night.

PWs of 1.5 to 1.6+ inches are in place which is helping to yield
heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger
storms. These heavier rainfall rates coupled with locally slow
cell-motions and pockets of cell-training may foster some
additional isolated rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches. This is
supported by the 00Z HREF guidance.

These additional rains will support a threat for additional areas
of flash flooding going through the overnight hours. However, by
later tonight the convection should weaken sufficiently to allow
for the flash flooding threat to diminish.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34740141 34320066 33310052 32230157 31260328
            30810485 31110595 31830638 32590601 33330477
            33990379 34640259