900
AWUS01 KWNH 190302
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1086
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northwest to Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190301Z - 190900Z

SUMMARY...An expanding axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
overnight is expected, with rainfall rates capable of reaching 2.5
inches/hour. This coupled with cell-training concerns will favor
an uptick in the threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
GLM/LightningCast data shows a rapidly developing and expanding
axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms across northeast KS and
into far northwest MO. This activity is initiating in response to
a low-amplitude shortwave impulse advancing eastward across the
central Plains.

This energy is interacting with nearby proximity of a frontal zone
draped across central KS through southern MO with an ejecting wave
of low pressure along it fostering the advance of a warm front up
toward the Lower MO Valley. The upper support with the shortwave
energy is also facilitating an uptick in a southwest low-level jet
which should get some nocturnal enhancement overnight. This will
drive a strengthening moisture and instability transport regime
over the warm front and should further support the expanding axis
of mostly elevated convection across northeast KS and into
northwest MO. This in time will begin to advance or develop
farther downstream into central MO as well.

Cell-training concerns in particular will drive the increasing
concern for areas of flash flooding as the expanding shower and
thunderstorm activity will be aligned well with the deeper layer
steering flow. The 18Z HREF/REFS consensus supports some spotty 30
to 50 percent probabilities of seeing the 3-hour FFG values across
the region exceeded, with most areas in the 10 to 30 percent
range. This will be aided by an environment conducive for rainfall
rates reaching as high as 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger storms.

Localized swaths of rainfall totals reaching 3 to 4+ inches can be
expected by later tonight, and as a result, there will be a
gradual increase in the potential for flash flooding including
impacts to some of the larger urban corridors. The Kansas City
metropolitan area will be among the areas at greatest risk over
the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40099612 39999402 39719285 39129171 38529130
            38069147 37869220 38449422 38869597 39109688
            39719700