820
AWUS01 KWNH 010403
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-010800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0290
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1202 AM EDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...East Central Kansas to Western Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010400Z - 010800Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed along a
stationary boundary in east central Kansas. With weak steering
flow and upscale growth, flash flooding is likely.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with additional isolated cells
around it has formed along a stationary boundary across east
central Kansas this evening. These storms are feeding off PWAT
values above 1.5 inches, extreme instability over 4,000 J/kg, and
a 10-20 kt flow at 850 providing moisture advection into the
storms. The result of all of these favorable ingredients is the
cluster of storms likely continuing to grow upscale, merging with
the individual cells around it, especially those to the west, and
gradual drifting east and southeast along the boundary as the
storms follow the best advection and instability. Corfidi Vectors
are 5-10 kts out of the west, which will support slow storm
motions, with cold pools supporting backbuilding. Recent heavy
rainfall in the area have lowered FFGs, with 1-hour values
averaging around 1.5 inches/hour. The storms that have formed in
the cluster have been producing 2-2.5 inch/hour rainfall rates,
suggesting that the FFGs will be a low threshold, easily exceeded
by many of the strongest storms. Flash flooding is likely.

CAMs guidance is understandably having a difficult time resolving
the storms. Many of them show clusters of storms forming, but how
widespread they get and where they go is in poor agreement. As
mentioned above, it seems likely that the storms will follow the
stationary boundary they formed along, which will take them mostly
south of Kansas City and likely north of Joplin, but right turns
to the south could bring Joplin into the flash flooding threat
later tonight. A second stationary boundary over central Missouri
could also support additional storm development over the next few
hours. Recent heavy rains east of Kansas City there as well will
also support flash flooding development. Due to the highly
favorable environment, significant flash flooding is possible,
especially in any flood prone, urban, and poor drainage areas.

The storms are likely to persist into Missouri through the
overnight, so an updated MPD for further east later tonight
appears probable.

Wegman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39379410 39379351 39239322 38569303 37789296
            37349304 36879330 36859400 36919425 37009464
            37139560 37539623 37589630 37989678 38519695
            38799684 38969663 39209613 39229587 39279530
            39329484