844
AWUS01 KWNH 021945
FFGMPD
FLZ000-030100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1550
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...Most of FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021943Z - 030100Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding will be likely over the
next 2-4 hours across portions of the FL Peninsula. Isolated peak
hourly rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches will remain possible, but the
threat for flash flooding may wane toward 00Z.

Discussion...1915Z radar imagery across FL showed two main axes of
heavy rain, one along the east coast from Palm Beach County to
Indian River County, and a second axis extending from the
southeastern Everglades to the interior Peninsula near Sebring.
Some degree of frictional convergence appeared to be aiding ascent
for the eastern Peninsula followed by cells tracking with the
deeper layer steering flow toward the NNW and training. An outflow
boundary was analyzed from just south of Vero Beach to the
northern shore of Lake Okeechobee to just south of Marco Island,
although recent convective development over southern FL has formed
an additional rain-cooled boundary that extended south to north
through the Everglades. While high PWs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches
extended throughout the Peninsula, MLCAPE was focused along and
southeast of the outflow with 1000-1500 J/kg via the 19Z SPC
mesoanalysis while weaker values of up to 500-1000 J/kg were
located over the central and northeastern Peninsula.

Easterly to southeasterly low level winds in the 925-850 mb layer
of 15-25 kt were located across the northern Bahamas into the east
coast with this setup likely to continue through 00Z. However,
there are some indications that forcing in the upper levels will
become a bit less favorable for widespread convection this
evening. A mid to upper level low ~120 miles west of Key West is
forecast to slowly drift southwest, away from the region while
upper level jet support weakens. However, mesoscale cold pools and
area convection with embedded mesocyclones will continue to pose a
flash flood threat over the next few hours with a focus near the
outflow boundary toward the southeastern Peninsula where better
instability resided. A secondary focus may form farther north
toward the northeastern Peninsula where better insolation was
occurring through broken cloud cover. Slow movement and training
of cells will continue to be capable of 2 to 4+ inch hourly
totals, although the probability for these higher rates should be
lowering through the remainder of the day. Even so, high rain
rates across urban and/or locations that have received heavy rain
over the past 24 hours will remain susceptible to flash flooding
with a possible waning of the threat near 00Z and beyond.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   29378182 29288054 28227994 27447979 26717973
            25718008 25288074 25378155 26118228 27008274
            27808281 28488252 29118216