074
AWUS01 KWNH 160227
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-160815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1199
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areas affected...northern NM into southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160225Z - 160815Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible through 08Z (2
AM MDT) from northern NM into southern CO with peak hourly
rainfall between 0.5 and 1.0 inches.

Discussion...02Z GOES East infrared imagery, lightning data and
MRMS reflectivity showed a broken line of thunderstorms stretching
from Rio Arriba County in northern NM into southern portions of
the CO Rockies. Additional convective development was beginning to
strengthen to the southeast of this axis, near Los Alamos and
Santa Fe. These thunderstorms were occurring out ahead of a potent
closed mid-level low tracking east through the Great Basin and
associated cold front at the surface. Instability via ABQ`s 00Z
sounding and 02Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE between
500-1000 J/kg along with anomalous PWATs between 0.6 and 0.9
inches. Aiding ascent was divergence within the right-entrance
region of a 110+ kt upper level jet extending from eastern UT into
central WY.

Within the lingering instability over northern NM and southern CO,
additional thunderstorm development is expected over the next few
hours as the upper trough and cold front move east. Steering flow
is unidirectional from the SSW which could support some repeating
and brief training, containing hourly rainfall up to about 1 inch.
This will promote a very localized flash flood threat, which will
mostly stay focused across sensitive burn scars and any shallow
creeks or low water crossings.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37990562 37750483 36860430 35870490 35100584
            34920660 35160697 35490707 36270704 37340655
            37750613