932
AWUS01 KWNH 171728
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-172230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Areas affected...Southern Ohio into West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171726Z - 172230Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Ohio
will progress east through West Virginia rest of this afternoon.
Cell-training is possible over this sensitive area from multiple
days of repeating rainfall. Localized flash flooding can be
expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As of 17Z, scattered showers have expanded enough
over southern Ohio to warrant inclusion in a discussion. This area
is in a warm sector ahead of a cold front with about 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE and elevated moisture of 2.1" PW. Hourly rainfall estimates
over southeast OH have begun to exceed 1". 1hr FFG is low,
generally around 1" over this area and east through central WV,
from the excessive rainfall across the region over the past week.
This activity is oriented with the deep layer westerly so
prolonged rainfall is expected to continue.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs have a decent handle on this activity
with a general 1-2" local 3" through 22Z. There has been a lack of
lightning so far with this southeast OH activity. Warm rain
processes will keep efficient production and the amount of
instability does suggest further intensification through the
afternoon is likely. Activity will clear behind the cold front,
but that won`t clear this discussion area until later this
evening. A subsequent discussion is possible due to ongoing
activity after 22Z.

Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40558342 40458176 40338034 40257857 39497892
            38207991 37818051 38088295 38768444 39868473
            40338421