393
AWUS01 KWNH 010937
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-011520-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1417
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...eastern CO into western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010934Z - 011520Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding may result from slow moving
areas of heavy rain across eastern CO into western KS through 15Z.
Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches and additional totals of 1 to
3 inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...09Z water vapor imagery from GOES East showed a mid
to upper-level low over centered near the western OK Panhandle
with slow but steady movement toward the east. A number of smaller
scale vorticity maxima were embedded within the broader mid-level
circulation, helping to concentrate a few localized areas of
heavier rainfall, producing MRMS-derived (and gauge confirmed)
hourly rainfall totals 0f 0.5 to 1.0 inches over the past couple
of hours. MUCAPE remained constrained to less than 500 J/kg over
southeastern CO but increased to over 1000 J/kg into west-central
KS via the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis.

09Z radar imagery identified some of the heaviest rainfall
intensities occurring along the western gradient of instability in
western KS, near and up to 60 miles south of Goodland, KS. This
area of heavy rain was located within a slowly pivoting
deformation zone to the northwest of a surface low in southwestern
KS, in the vicinity of an inverted trough extending northwest from
the low. Short term forecasts from the RAP show that only slow
movement of the surface low and deformation zone will occur as the
mid to upper-level low slowly nudges east through the remainder of
the morning. With this motion, areas of heavy rain will be slow to
translate away from western KS. However, a zone of low level
convergence is expected to become better defined over portions of
western to central KS after 12Z with the development of showers
and embedded thunderstorms expected along it.

Peak hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected to occur
with some of the stronger cores within slow moving areas of heavy
rain which are likely to approach 1-hr flash flood guidance across
eastern CO into western KS. However, the slow movement of heavy
rain cores is expected to support localized totals of 1 to 3
inches through 15Z which could fall in 3 hours or less time. Due
to these expectations, localized areas of flash flooding will be
possible.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39510078 39489987 39329913 38809900 38349995
            37850075 37340142 37100236 37050306 37130393
            37470411 37970376 38610287 39040228 39420150