110
AWUS01 KWNH 061622
FFGMPD
FLZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1162
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1222 PM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...Space Coast of Florida into Central Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061625Z - 062100Z

SUMMARY...Strong, directed onshore flow with strengthening
upstream low level flow, to support back-building training across
the Space Coast with highly efficient 2-3"/hr rates pose localized
urban flooding

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and KMLB RADAR shows strong
back-sheared thunderstorms crossing Cape Canaveral into N Brevard
county with slow weakening/disruption into the central Peninsula
as some dry air mixing is resulting in low level convergence
outrunning the deeper layer steering.  This reduces the vertical
depth of moisture flux convergence and rainfall generation.
However, nearer the coast; upstream increased deeper layer
moisture (including increasing 700mb RH) is maintaining broader
convective development within an East to West band north of Grand
Bahama into the Cape.  MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg are solid given the
narrow skinny/moist profile with depth.  Combining to the vertical
ascent is entrance to the 30-40kt 3H jet streak along 30N east of
79W, is providing solid divergence aloft to help maintain the
depth of rainfall production.

Deep layer moisture of 2.25" and flux convergence given upstream
winds of 25-30kts decelerating into the coast will allow for
continued 2-3"/hr rates with a favorable back-building
regenerative environment.   Eventually, the forecast is for the
outflow/jet entrance is to slide further east and reduce the
divergence aloft; however, there is some trends in satellite
loop/imagery that suggest the convection may be adding
to/strengthening the jet in a narrow axis.  If this were to occur,
longer duration will increase overall localized totals of 3-5".
Small southward wavering of the onshore axis is expected to help
spread the heavy rainfall footprint.  Given proximity to urban
locations and sheer rate, localized rapid inundation/flash
flooding is considered possible.

A bit more uncertain, is how far downstream into the Central
Peninsula this will extend.  Each bout/updraft cycle will further
moisten the low level environment and allow further downstream
extension of the narrow heavy rainfall (E-W) corridor.  Hi-Res
CAMs continue to suggest a westward translating convergence wave
lengthwise through the Peninsula, but current trends of upstream
development suggests coastal training remains more likely for the
greatest overall totals.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   29148147 29078097 28798063 28398036 27788042
            27848101 28378168 28728191 29038184