820
AWUS01 KWNH 280131
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-280700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0868
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona....Southwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280130Z - 280700Z

SUMMARY...Remaining conditionally unstable air between approaching
outflow boundaries likely to result in scattered thunderstorms
with rates of 1.25-1.5"/hr possible.

DISCUSSION...Fading GOES-E Visible imagery shows low-level
streamers emerging from the lower southern deserts of
south-central Arizona shifting eastward upslope toward two
complexes of thunderstorms.  The northern linear feature coming
off the peak of the Mogollon Rim from near KPAN southwest toward
KSAD, which have solid cooling convective towers, but remain
dotted/scattered along the line.  The outflow is slowly advancing
downslope into the easterly inflow.  The second larger MCS over
eastern Sonora state in NW Mexico is very broad with numerous
overshooting tops and cold canopy below -70C with some tops to
below -80C.  Most of the activity remains south of the border, but
there are hints the Meso-high is strengthening and an outflow
boundary is progressing northward in proximity to the SE AZ border
at this time.  Additional streams can be seen with occasional
development across SW NM advancing westward.  All areas are
generally advancing to an area of 1000-1500 J/kg of remaining CAPE
but also increased deeper layer moisture where TPW is over 1.5
nearing 1.75".  The broad scale overturning/ convergence should
result in scattered broadening updraft cores capable of
short-burst (sub-hourly) 1-1.5" totals.  Given the rate over
hard/rocky ground conditions, incidents of localized flash
flooding will remains possible through the early overnight period
as the boundaries collide and the developing complex shifts
eastward downslope.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34821139 34241047 33530959 33100904 33060795
            32720701 31740690 31670796 31250802 31250844
            31210967 31261105 31741250 32461241 32691184
            33271132 34241195 34681194