853
AWUS01 KWNH 170032
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-170500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0464
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170030Z - 170500Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue for at
least a few more hours across areas of central and eastern NC.
Additional isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Very cold convective tops are noted with clusters of
heavy showers and thunderstorms moving gradually east across
central and eastern NC this evening. The convection remains
embedded within a very moist and unstable boundary layer focused
near and south of a stationary front.

PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches, and MLCAPE values as high as 1500 to
2500 J/kg are still in place based on the latest RAP analysis.
Some modest shear with a belt of relatively stronger northwest
mid-level flow is noted overhead as well and this coupled with the
strong thermodynamics has been yielding some organization to the
convection over the last couple of hours.

Expect the areas of showers and thunderstorms to continue to
advance off to the east with some loss in latitude as well over
the next few hours, with some of the storms still capable of
producing rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with the
stronger cells.

However, the latest hires model guidance suggests that the
activity should gradually weaken by late this evening as boundary
layer instability gradually wanes. Some additional localized storm
totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible where the stronger storms
focus at least over the next few hours.

This may support some additional isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding which may also still include some localized urban
flooding concerns.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36527902 36407820 36337749 36297702 36297649
            36167594 35767560 35347575 34877664 34587770
            34567894 34848003 35478039 36088048 36428021
            36417978