880
AWUS01 KWNH 221151
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-221700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0819
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
709 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221108Z - 221700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will persist this morning
across central/eastern Virginia with 1-2"/hr rain rates. Repeating
and training of these cells could lead to additional flash
flooding, especially atop recently saturated soils.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows a narrow
line of convection oriented generally west to east across Virginia
from near Blacksburg through Richmond and over to Chincoteague.
This convection is persisting along a narrow 925mb confluence axis
noted via the RAP analysis, which may additionally be enhanced by
both residual outflow from Tusday`s convection and a differential
heating boundary on the southern edge of an area of heavy rain
from overnight. Hourly rainfall within this morning activity has
been measured via MRMS to be generally 0.75 to 1.00 inches, with
locally higher embedded amounts.

The environment across Virginia remains favorable for heavy rain
this morning. PWs as measured via recent GPS observations are as
high as 2.1 inches in southeast VA, above the 90th percentile for
the date, as moisture pools south of a slowly advancing cold front
positioned back across the OH/TN Valleys. Additionally, a corridor
of MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg exists along and south of this
confluence boundary to support lift as it gets drawn northward
into the convection. Although mean 0-6km winds are quick at around
40 kts, Corfidi vectors aligned to the mean flow and this
confluence boundary suggest a prolonged period of
training/repeating cells, which could produce an additional 2-3"
of rainfall with locally higher amounts into the aftn.

Rainfall last night was impressive from central VA through the
Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, and over to the Eastern Shore
where 2 to as much as 7 inches of rainfall fell. This has
pre-saturated the soils leading to 0-10cm RSM from NASA SpoRT to
be as much as 80-90%, and compromised FFG to just 1.5"/3hrs. While
the heaviest rain may occur just south of this axis (although the
activity is a bit north of most guidance at this time), any
repeating or training of these heavy rates could lead to rapid
runoff and instances of flash flooding. The most likely impacts
this morning will be across urban areas and these more sensitive
soils, but by this aftn additional development is likely which
could necessitate additional MPDs and more widespread flash flood
potential.

Weiss

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37957555 37777509 37207478 36837502 36507624
            36367772 36577918 36917962 37357922 37717745