357
AWUS01 KWNH 160051
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-160649-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1063
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
850 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...much of Kansas and far eastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160049Z - 160649Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected through 06Z/1a central.

Discussion...A couple of convective clusters were expanding
gradually toward western Kansas over the past hour.  One was
located over far southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas, where
multiple merging cells have fostered spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates (per MRMS) and another, more linearly oriented cluster from
near Sterling south-southwest through Limon to near Pueblo.  The
cells were making steady eastward progress toward increasing PW
(1.25-1.8), strong instability (around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE across
west-central KS), and low-level easterly flow, providing very
subtle low-level shear to aid in cell/MCS maintenance.  These
clusters have resulted in several areas of reported flash flood
impacts and MRMS Flash responses - particularly across central
Colorado.  Given the increasingly favorable thermodynamic
environment and expectation that several mergers will accompany
the clusters as they migrate eastward through Kansas, flash flood
potential is likely to continue through the night.  FFG thresholds
only marginally improve with eastward extent into Kansas and
remain close to 1-1.5 inch/hr from west-central into north-central
KS and points northwestward.  These thresholds will be exceeded
occasionally as cells move through the discussion area through
06Z/1a central.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...PUB...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40640301 40230149 40059919 39919784 38969738
            37959808 37270013 37110217 37770380 38660416
            40430374