446
FXUS63 KMPX 191737
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1137 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog this morning in Western Wisconsin, with
  below freezing temperatures this freezing fog could lead to
  slick spots on untreated roads and surfaces.

- Mild with slightly above normal temperatures and no
  significant precipitation chances over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today... Clear skies and calm winds over western Wisconsin this
morning has allowed for a radiational fog to develop. With the
cool temperatures this is a freezing fog which could lead to
slick spots on untreated roads and surfaces this morning. This
fog will burn off after sunrise as temperatures start to warm.
Farther to the west over Minnesota cloud cover is keeping
temperatures warmer and dense fog is not expected. Saturation is
high enough that some fog could still form in the typical low
lying spots and near bodies of water. Looking ahead to later
today, a shortwave will pass to our north and provide for
another chance for precipitation. Chances for accumulating
precipitation will be best over northern Minnesota where there
is better forcing. Despite the lack of forcing down here, there
does look to be a deep enough layer of saturation that we could
see some drizzle today into tonight. This is shown in high
resolution models with saturation generally from around 800 mb
down to the surface. With temperatures staying above freezing
tonight no impacts are expected.

Thursday through Monday... Continued northwest flow aloft
through this period. There are a few shortwaves riding along
this flow, but little moisture present to provide any good chances
for precipitation at this time. This is also reflected in
global ensemble systems with little to no precipitation present
among membership. These same systems also suggest continued mild
temperatures in the 40s to maybe even a few lower 50s. With
normal highs now around 40 this is 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
This makes sense as there is no snowpack yet over the Canadian
Prairies, where our northwest flow is coming from.

Tuesday towards Thanksgiving... By the middle of next week it
looks like there will be a change in the pattern just in time
for the holiday travel period. A larger wave looks to move
through the central CONUS in the global deterministic guidance.
Still far enough out that many of the details are uncertain,
which is reflected in spread among ensemble systems. While the
precipition impact around the holiday remains uncertain, what
is more certain is the colder air to follow this system and an
end to our mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

MVFR to borderline IFR cigs are expected through the period.
Things trend more IFR overnight with some fog/drizzle possible
by early morning. Thursday morning looks to be much like this
morning with improvement coming just beyond the end of the
forecast period. Winds are southerly but will turn out of the
west to northwest by tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Expecting cigs to lift to MVFR this afternoon before
falling again late tonight. There`s a chance for some drizzle
early tomorrow morning, but uncertain whether or not it would
impact vis, so have left it out for now. Conditions begin to
improve by tomorrow afternoon, but have opted to remain MVFR
through the end of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind W 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Dye