332
FXUS63 KMPX 021837
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
137 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light rain showers move through Saturday afternoon
  & evening, with most locations receiving around 0.10".

- Dry weather persists through much of next week along with
  above-normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

While mid-level clouds have been encroaching on our area from SD,
low-level dry air has largely kept any rain from reaching the
surface. Virga will be expected this afternoon and evening as the
clouds move east across MN/WI, but did keep 10% PoPs in the forecast
in case of a sprinkle. Lows tonight will not be nearly as cool as
last night, owing to the greater cloud cover and an incoming warmer
air mass ahead of a shortwave. 40s are expected for most places
except for our far eastern WI counties where mid to upper 30s are
more likely. Highs Saturday will be a few degrees warmer than today,
though cloud cover will increase again in the afternoon as the
aforementioned shortwave approaches. CAMs favor an area of showers
developing from central to central to southern MN during the early
to mid afternoon, which then travels east into WI by evening.
Rainfall amounts currently don`t look to be too heavy, though 0.1-
0.2" is a possibility. A localized area could potentially receive
more if a stray thunderstorm occurs. If you have outdoor activities
planned on Saturday, it would be a good idea to have an umbrella or
shelter to dodge the rain. Winds will also be breezy Saturday
afternoon out of the south as a LLJ advances ahead of the mid-level
trough. Gusts will generally reach 25-30 mph across MN with isolated
gusts of 35+ mph possible near the Buffalo Ridge. The winds will
turn northwesterly and slow as we go into Saturday night.

After the rain and shortwave moves east during Saturday night, the
forecast looks very quiet for most of next week. Long-range
deterministic and ensemble guidance shows the upper-level jetstream
remaining mainly off to our north. This should allow any shortwaves
and their forcing to pass well away from our CWA, greatly limiting
our chances for precipitation. Temperatures will slightly cool
Sunday and Monday following a cold frontal passage Saturday night.
Highs during this time are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s. The
best chance for frost in the forecast period will be Sunday night
when lows could dip into the mid 30s in eastern MN and northwest WI.
Afterwards, temperatures will warm to above normal (highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s) through next Friday as broad ridging builds over
the western half of the CONUS. The first full week of October looks
great if you have any outdoor activities planned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Upper to mid-level cigs continue to move in from the west from AXN
to RWF and are expected to blanket all sites later this afternoon
and evening. Kept precip mentions out of the TAFs for now as enough
dry air looks to be in place to mitigate droplets from reaching
any tarmacs. Light NW`ly winds near 5kts will shift SSE`ly
tonight. A LLJ will mix down to the surface early tomorrow
morning and increase wind gusts between 20-30kts through the
morning.

KMSP...No concerns this afternoon. There is a non-zero chance
for a few sprinkles with the cloud cover moving in tonight
however, a dry surface layer looks to keep any precip confined
aloft. Around sunrise, a LLJ will mix down near the surface and
increase winds gusts to around 25kts through most of the daytime
hours. Introduced a prob30 for MVFR -SHRA given growing
confidence in a period of light rain that could reach the field
tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Dunleavy