673
FXUS63 KMPX 031721
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1121 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the upper 40s/50s are expected through the rest of
  the work week.

- Rain is looking likely Friday into Saturday, with some
  periods of rain/snow mix possible during the overnight hours
  for western and central Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Some light rain/drizzle has managed to make it to the surface early
this morning in southern Minnesota. Temperatures are just above
freezing, which has limited the amount of freezing drizzle, but a
few surface obs along I-90 have been reporting unknown precip
periodically. Elsewhere, patchy fog is reducing visibilities
slightly ( still > 6SM) and will likely continue through
sunrise, but overall any dense fog will remain confined to
northern Minnesota. Clouds will thin out by this afternoon with
highs in the upper 40s to near 50. Wednesday and Thursday will
see highs solidly in the 50s area wide with minimal precip
chances. A trough moving through Iowa late Wednesday/early
Thursday may bring some light rain chances to our easternmost
Wisconsin counties as it lifts northward, but for now, PoPs are
very low.

Friday continues to look like the most active day of the forecast
period as a developing low over the Central Plains moves to the
northeast over the Great Lakes into Saturday. There will likely be
two rounds of rain with this system, with the first moving in by
early Friday morning. QPF amounts are quite impressive, with totals
ranging from 0.25" to over 0.50" through Friday afternoon and an
additional 0.25" or more overnight into Saturday morning. AI
ensembles have been very consistent in their placement of the bulk
of the QPF falling across Iowa and Wisconsin. Global ensembles (most
notably the Euro) are slightly further northwest, which would place
the heaviest precip axis across our CWA. In any case, 0.50 to 1" of
QPF is not out of the question to end the week. As this system wraps
in colder air Friday night, some wintry precip/snow may mix in
across western and central Minnesota heading into Saturday. For
now, snowfall amounts are around an inch or less, but this will
continue to fluctuate over the coming days.

Temperatures rebound back into the 50s to low 60s for Sunday with
more of the same expected to start the week, but beyond that, it
appears that a return to more normal early/mid March temperatures is
in the cards by late next week. The pattern continues to look
active as well, with models suggesting another strong system is
on the horizon somewhere across the central CONUS. With the
colder air returning, the threat for wintry precip certainly
exists, but for now, enjoy the early Spring temperatures!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Scattered to broken MVFR/IFR clouds will continue to hang around
our central and western MN terminals for the next few hours.
However, overall improvement to VFR during this afternoon,
except at AXN. Went more pessimistic overnight into Wednesday
morning with broken skies and cigs dropping to low-end MVFR at
all terminals. Forecast soundings show good saturation overnight
from 1000-2500 feet. EAU could see the worst conditions with
visibilities and cigs possibly falling under 4sm and 1000 feet,
respectively. Though, have opted to omit that from the TAF at
this time. Clouds should scatter by late morning leading to VFR.
Southwesterly/southerly winds near 5 knots will become
light/variable overnight becoming southerly and increasing to
5-10 knots later Wednesday morning.

KMSP...Thinking MSP stays VFR through 12Z Wednesday with
scattered cigs at 2500 feet. But, a stronger signal of MVFR
exists from 12-16Z Wednesday as greater boundary layer
saturation occurs. MSP should return to VFR by late morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...MVFR -RA BR. Wind SE 5-15 kts, bcmg N late.
SAT...MVFR/IFR -RA/SN early. VFR PM. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...CTG