485
FXUS63 KMPX 051804
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1204 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and freezing rain expected to develop across central and
  eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin late this evening.
  Ice accumulations between a tenth and two tenths of an inch
  are likely, with potential for more.

- Quiet and mild with highs above freezing through Thursday.

- Large winter storm to impact the Central Plains to Upper
  Great Lakes next weekend, greatest potential for accumulating
  snow locally is across eastern Minnesota and western
  Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Short Term (Today Through Tuesday):

Areas of fog have developed this morning across MN, but so far
visibilities are remaining above 1 to 2 miles. Dense fog with
visibilities  mile or less are being observed on the Buffalo
Ridge across southwest MN and into parts of northern IA. Its
unclear whether dense fog will build into the lower elevations
of southwest MN, but so far observations indicate this has not
yet happened. Short term guidance suggests this will happen
during the next several hours, so will continue to monitor for
the need for a Dense Fog Advisory through the morning.

A mid level disturbance over the Rockies early this morning
will shift east across the central Plains to IA by this evening.
By early this evening, precipitation will begin to break out
across the southern half of MN. The main driver will be a band
of W-E oriented frontogenesis that is expected to set up across
central MN into west central WI. As was noted in the previous
discussion, some guidance is likely too far north and QPF not
tied directly with the frontogenesis may not materialize.
Several CAMs now show general consensus with the more consistent
global guidance, and to some extent the AI guidance, with the
highest QPF falling along this corridor roughly from the Willmar
area eastward to the metro and Eau Claire. The band likely will
be fairly narrow, so any slight adjustments in where it
ultimately sets up will bring significant local impacts.

QPF with some of the guidance continues to be impressive with
over an inch. The global guidance is not quite as heavy, but
this may be just a function of grid spacing. The good news is
that temperatures along the expected positioning of the main
band will hover within a couple degrees of freezing. To the
north it will be colder and to the south it will be warmer.
This, and the rate at which it will fall, should be limiting
factors for a damaging ice storm. Heavy rain wont have enough
time to freeze into ice before a lot of it runs off of elevated
surfaces. However, ground temperatures are still cold, so travel
should be the biggest impact. Ice will have the ability to
accumulate on untreated surfaces even with air temperatures a
few degrees above freezing. Given the high likelihood of travel
impacts, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for a large
chunk of central and parts of southern MN into all of west
central WI. Once the band begins to set up and confidence with
temperatures and QPF increases, there may need to be an upgrade
to a localized Ice Storm Warning later today. The band will
shift east later Tuesday morning and temperatures should warm
into the mid 30s in the afternoon, bringing improving
conditions.

Borghoff

Long Term:

Once our Tuesday system departs, we will be mild and dry with
temperatures climbing into the mid 30s to low 40s Wednesday and
Thursday. Wednesday looks to be the warmer of the two days, with
a break from the persistent stratus. Areas along the Buffalo
Ridge may make a run at 45, while 40 isnt out of the question
further east. Heading into Thursday afternoon, a 500mb trough
digs in over the Rockies and looks to generate a surface low
across Central Plains to end the week. As the system tracks
towards the Great Lakes, a weaker shortwave out ahead of the
main trough will spawn a more compact area of precip late
Thursday into early Friday. For now, this looks to remain to our
southeast. However, once the main trough axis arrives over the
Dakotas late Friday, we will see our shot at accumulating snow
for eastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin for Saturday. This
system has had our attention for a few days now, with the
majority of both GFS and ECMWF ensemble members continuing to
highlight QPF amounts of 0.25-0.50. Luckily, our temperatures
will have come back down to more seasonable readings in the 20s
to low 30s, so p-type should not be as big of a concern. Of
course, this system still has plenty of time to wobble around.

Dye

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

A stratus deck around 200 to 300ft has remained fairly steady
state through the day, resulting in LIFR conditions for most
sites beneath it. Models continue to try and spread the
stratus/fog through this afternoon, but both satellite and
surface observations show little movement of the current stratus
deck. Therefore, not expecting stratus to spread into areas its
not already impacting until later tonight. Increased low-level
moisture will also bring potential for freezing rain late this
evening and overnight. That said, a stout mid-level dry layer
will negate this some, reducing confidence in widespread
impacts. Therefore, have kept FZRA to prob30 groups for most
likely times at all sites. Of greater confidence will be
reinvigoration of the FG/FZFG and stratus at all sites into
Tuesday morning.

KMSP...Stratus clouds and the IFR conditions have yet to impact
MSP, and likely won`t until later this afternoon and evening.
Freezing rain remains possible at MSP later tonight, although
the TAF site remains on the northern fringe of the better
chances. That said, should these FZRA chances drift farther
northwards, multiple hours of freezing rain are possible.
Confidence is still low on if saturation will be achieved and
freezing rain will fall at MSP, so exact start time is tricky,
but most likely period will be around 06z tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. Wind S 5kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.
FRI...MVFR, chc IFR/-SN. Wind N 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...WFO DMX