442
FXUS63 KMPX 010613
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
113 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
  continue through Monday.

- Better chance of widespread rainfall arrives Wednesday into
  Thursday.

- Extended forecast features an above normal temperatures trend
  through the first portion of June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

It`s one of those days where the weather varies quite a bit from
west to east across the area! Afternoon radar displays waves of
scattered showers (some of which have been very efficient rain
producers -- FCM measured 0.4" in one hour!) lifting northward
across MN within a region of ascent ahead of an elongated trough
that spans much of the NW CONUS. Conversely, dry weather is
continues east of the MN/WI state line. Over the past few days,
the Upper Midwest has been positioned south of a blocking high
over south central Canada in an omega block pattern. We`re
seeing a slight breakdown of this pattern today, as stronger
forcing rounding the trough has resulted in an eastward push of
a moisture plume (characterized by PWATs of 1-1.5") that spans
from central MN all the way to Gulf. Additional waves of showers
are likely this afternoon and evening as synoptic forcing
increases. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing showers have
worked to slow warming and will likely play a role in lowering
chances of thunderstorms later today. However, any additional
showers that take on a more convective look will have the
potential to produce lightning and efficient rainfall rates
given a couple hundred joules of MUCAPE and high PWATs
referenced above. We have overhauled the short term grids to
better reflect observational trends, which included lowering
temperatures and an eastward expansion/increase in PoPs. CAM
guidance remains rather messy given the weaker forcing regime,
but there is a signal for a band rain/isolated thunder moving
from southwest to northeast across the region this evening so
have worked that idea into the latest forecast. We`ll likely
have to refine the PoP windows with several updates through the
evening and into the night in this regime.

Large scale blocking will result in the maturation of an upper-
low over the northwestern CONUS Monday and the reestablishment
of ridging across the Upper Midwest. Forcing for additional
showers and thunderstorms will become displaced to the
northwest, which has yielded lower PoPs for the opening of the
work week. Still, HREF advertises a plume of MUCAPEs on the
order of 1000-1500 J/kg across the western half of the forecast
area tomorrow afternoon which will work in tandem with PWATS
~1-1.25" to support isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
or two. Coverage of precipitation is forecast to be much lower
than today/tonight, so we`ve opted to only roll with 20-30 PoPs
in the grids. SPC has maintained a Marginal (Level 1/5) risk
area across far southwestern MN where instability is forecast to
be the strongest. Isolated damaging wind and large hail are the
primary threats. Given the expectation of a drier picture
Monday, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the lower
80s for afternoon highs.

Tuesday & Wednesday should be warm and dry for most locations as
the ridge axis remains positioned over the region. High
temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 80s both days. A
more notable pattern change is set to take place Wednesday PM
onward, as the early week omega block breaks down. The
development of a strong zonal Pacific jet will send the remnant
upper-low (still spinning over the NW CONUS by mid-week)
eastward along the International Border. In response, a surface
low and attendant cold front will advance across the Upper
Midwest and bring widespread precipitation chances to the
region. There is strong ensemble support for a widespread
precipitation which is reflected by 60-70 PoPs in the NBM
forecast grids late Wednesday into early Thursday. We`re still
putting the QPF forecast together, but confidence is increasing
the potential for 0.25-0.75" of rain.

Looking ahead to next weekend, guidance advertises a deeper
trough digging over the western CONUS and large scale ridge
amplification over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Would tend to
like this look for a continued trend of above normal
temperatures, which is highlighted with highs in the mid 80s in
the NBM. However, global models feature a shortwave or two
advancing northeast within large scale southwesterly flow ahead
of the western trough which could promote additional
precipitation chances. There is at least some support for more
measurable precipitation tied to the shortwaves in the ensemble
guidance, so that will bear watching. Otherwise, the pattern
looks to remain warm through the first portion of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Northwest-southeast oriented band of rain showers continues
across central MN into western MN at initialization but shows
slow signs of dissipating. No TSRA is evident for the WFO MPX
TAFs thus have only mentioned -RA/-SHRA for the precipitation.
Little to no precipitation is expected from around 12z onward,
as conditions will slowly improve as the day progresses. Patches
of IFR ceilings with MVFR visibilities will persist through
sunrise but as daytime mixing commences, the low level moisture
will be scoured out and conditions will improve to VFR with
mid-level SCT to BKN cloud cover. Winds will remain from the E
to SE under 10kts.

KMSP...A few showers are possible in the first 1-2hrs of the
01/06z TAF set, otherwise dry conditions are expected
throughout. Ceilings will likely drop to MVFR levels later this
morning into the time of the morning push, followed by VFR
conditions with mid-level ceilings persisting throughout the
day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.
THU...-RA likely. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...JPC