089
FXUS63 KMPX 031111
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
511 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon for central
  and east central MN and western WI, where humidities will fall
  into the 20s and west winds will gust to between 20 and 30
  mph.

- Best chance for precipitation over the next week comes
  Saturday, this could also offer us our first snowflake
  sightings of the season.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Although we are post frontal early this morning, the cold advection
in the wake of the front hasn`t exactly been impressive, with
temperatures at 3am still up in the 40s for eastern MN and western
WI. Though the incoming airmass isn`t exactly cold, it is drier than
what we had over the weekend. We did mix in some HRRR into our
dewpoint forecast for today to get a bit more aggressive than the
NBM with the mixing today. This dropped humdities this afternoon
into the 20-35% range. The pressure gradient will also be strong
enough to support west winds gusting to between 20 and 30 mph today.
It`s a pretty classic fall/spring elevated fire weather day and we
did coordinate with ARX, FGF, and DLH to issue an SPS for elevated
fire weather conditions for portions of our area along and north of
a line from Douglas down to Goodhue county, which is where winds are
expected to be strongest today.

For the rest of the week, we will remain mild, with highs in the 50s
with a wavy pattern expected. We`ll see our next wave move through
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Precip with this look to fall north of
the surface low. That low will be traveling across southern MN, so
that puts the band of WAA/FGEN precip across northern MN to the U.P.
of Michigan Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, which will mean
another dry and mild fropa for us. We`ll get another high pressure
and dry weather for Wednesday, with the next wave in the train
coming through Thursday afternoon/evening. This front looks similar
to what we saw Sunday, where sufficient saturation along the
boundary to support rain doesn`t come until it is already east of
our area, so the NBM with its 30 PoPs over western WI Thursday
evening looks reasonable.

Where things start to look more intriguing is this weekend. We`ll
see a wave come out of the US/Canadian Rockies Friday night that
will deepen a bit quicker and farther south than what we will see
with the waves this week. This leads to better precipitation chances
(40s) for most of our area. Also, this low will be drawing in some
colder air, with a transition to snow expected to the north of the
low track. Looking at the ensembles, the cooler and wetter end of
the solutions would say we could have our first measurable snow of
the season. However, there`s still plenty of spread as to whether or
not this wave produces much precipitation locally at all and if
there is precip, spread exists with how quick a transition from rain
to snow would occur as well. The EPS probability for more than 0.1"
of QPF falling as snow (so greater than 1" of snow with a 10:1
ratio) is 30-40% along and north of the I-94 corridor. So this is
certainly one to watch for those wanting to see some snow, but it`s
definitely too early to be putting too many chips into the snow
square. What there is higher confidence in is the cold air coming
behind the Saturday wave, with the NBM only showing highs in the 30s
for Sunday. However, just like we caution about getting too excited
on the snow potential Saturday, don`t get too excited about this
cooldown, with it only looking to last a couple of days before we`re
back into a mild Pacific airmass we`ve spend much of the fall
in.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 503 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Main change to the going TAFs was to boost wind speeds and
gusts for today based on the deep mixing seen with HRRR/RAP
soundings. Does look like MSP/RNH/EAU will have to potential to
see an ob or two where gusts top 30 kts. High pressure moves in
tonight, which will help to quickly drop the wind speeds at
sunset. Cloud cover will be lacking, with only an increase in
cirrus expected toward the end of the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG