337
FXUS63 KMPX 142335
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
635 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain continues through this evening, with locally
  over 1 possible across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Dry & breezy Tuesday will be followed by a chilly night with
  lows in the 40s across much of central Minnesota & western
  Wisconsin.

- Unsettled weather returns late week, with the best chance for
  widespread rain & a few stronger thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A soggy start to the work week as a widespread shield of rain
continues to move eastwards across Minnesota & Wisconsin. Most
locations should end up with at least 0.5 of rain by tonight,
while amounts around 1 & locally higher are more likely across
southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin where showers &
embedded thunderstorms will linger the longest. Severe weather
is not a concern given the cool & stable boundary layer, but a
few thunderstorms could contain brief heavier downpours.
Southeast winds will also remain gusty at 30-35 mph before the
surface low moves north of the region tonight & rain ends from
west to east.

Tuesday looks much quieter as the trailing cold front moves
through the area by around daybreak & drier northwest flow
develops behind it. Breezy west/northwest winds pick up during
the morning with gusts of 25-30 mph expected before winds speeds
begin to diminish during the afternoon as Canadian high pressure
enters the region. Afternoon highs will end up around 70
degrees, with prime radiational colling conditions expected
overnight under clear skies & calm winds associated with the
high pressure. Lows in the 30s are possible in more rural areas
of central Minnesota & western Wisconsin while temperatures fall
into the 40s elsewhere. Rain chances dont stay away for long
though, as the front begins lifting back north Wednesday ahead
of another disturbance.

Some scattered rain showers are likely Wednesday afternoon, but
more widespread chances for rain come Friday into Saturday as a
stronger wave ejects out of the Plains & pulls deeper moisture
northwards. Ensemble guidance has trended noticeably wetter with
this system, with a widespread soaking rain looking
increasingly plausible across at least portions of Minnesota &
Wisconsin. The main question will be exactly where the surface
boundary sets up, as areas near & north of it could see repeated
rounds of rain while locations that make it into the warm
sector could see a few stronger thunderstorms Friday afternoon
or evening. At this point the heavy rain potential looks like
the more likely concern, with the severe threat conditional on
how far north the warm front can advance & how much instability
develops. Additional disturbances remain possible over the
weekend as a stronger upper-level system approaches from the
west, so the active & occasionally wet pattern will likely
continue through the end of the seven-day period. Temperatures
remain fairly seasonable through the week with highs mainly in
the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Most of the -SHRA will be over western WI this evening, but a
few stray showers are possible at MKT for the first few hours of
the period. Not expecting any significant reductions to
visibilities from this activity, though. After -SHRA clears to
the east, MVFR/IFR conditions are expected overnight with
overcast/broken low stratus and mist slightly reducing
visibilities. VFR will arrive from west to east during early
Tuesday morning after a cold front pushes through. Scattered
diurnal cumulus is possible near 4000 feet mid to late morning
but clear skies are expected by Tuesday afternoon. Southerly
winds ahead of the front will gust to 20-25 knots before slowing
to 5-10 knots for a few hours post-front and turning westerly. Winds
will then increase in speed while becoming west-northwesterly
from early to late Tuesday morning. Winds will be strongest in
western and central MN where gusts will reach 25-30 knots. A
strong west-northwesterly LLJ will move overhead during this
time creating LLWS of 40-50 knots for most of the region. Winds
slow to near 10 knots by late afternoon.

KMSP...Opted to remove -SHRA for this evening as any showers
will be non-impactful. IFR cigs expected from 03-10z. Winds
become westerly by 10z with westerly LLWS expected from 10-13z.
VFR expected after sunrise Tuesday morning with west-
northwesterly winds gusting to near 20 knots until mid-
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA PM. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind NE 5kts.
FRI...MVFR chc IFR w/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...CTG