241
FXUS63 KMPX 152343
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intermittent drizzle/sprinkles/showers are expected across
  much of our coverage area through Thursday with continued
  cloudy skies.

- Cool temperatures today become much warmer Thursday and Friday
  ahead of the next frontal system which will bring additional
  rainfall to the area.

- A cooler, drier air mass settles in for the weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A rather moist and stable airmass will remain in place across
our coverage area through tonight as the center of high pressure
shifts into the Great Lakes and a developing warm front over the
Central Plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley slowly
shifts northward. Sufficient isentropic lift within the low-to-
mid levels, aligning well with the higher moisture content, will
continue to produce intermittent rounds of
drizzle/sprinkles/showers over much of our coverage area,
particularly south of I-94 through sunset then overspreading
much of the area tonight into tomorrow. The precipitation will
not amount to much through Thursday afternoon, only amounting to
up to about a quarter inch of rain, but that it will take the
form of drizzle/sprinkles at times will reduce visibility from
time to time. This will also keep the low stratus clouds in
place which will reduce temperatures to rather small diurnal
ranges today into tomorrow. Highs will only reach the low-mid
50s today (possibly upper 50s along the IA border) with lows
tonight from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The front to the south will quickly and effectively move north
of our coverage area tomorrow, allowing for a strong surge of
unseasonably warm air into the Upper Midwest for Thursday. So
even with the expected rainfall to continue for the first half
of the day, even the littlest bit of clearing combined with
ridging moving into the region which will increase the H7-H5
heights, the warming scenario will push highs on Thursday into
the mid 60s in western WI to the mid 70s in western MN. The cold
front associated with this frontal system is not expected to
push through the region until late day Friday, thus the warmer
air will remain over the WFO MPX coverage area Thursday night
through the daytime hours on Friday. This will result in lows
ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s, followed by highs on
Friday still in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A brief round of
showers, potentially with a few weak t-storms, will push
through the area Friday afternoon-evening, again producing only
up to around a quarter of an inch of QPF. Post-front, another
airmass change will be apparent as colder/seasonable
temperatures follow the front but skies will be clearing out and
a drier airmass will arrive which should make for a rather nice
fall weekend. Highs will drop back to the 50s to lower 60s while
lows plunge to the 30s and 40s.

A brief warm up is possible early next week, but already by
Monday we begin to see spread grow between the deterministic
forecast models. The upper-level pattern becomes wavy but more
progressive as the blocking features over the western Atlantic
and eastern Canada breakdown. Models suggest that a couple of
shortwaves will pass through the Upper Midwest during the first
half of next week. The first chance for rain looks to be the
Monday afternoon into Monday night timeframe followed by another
chance mid-week. Neither system looks to be significant but is
something to watch if you have any outdoor activities planned or
are wondering to bring an umbrella for the day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Rather messy aviation scenario across the region this evening.
Widespread IFR or lower stratus is the main story, along with
areas of fog (mostly across western MN). Not anticipating much
improvement in the cigs through tonight and will need to monitor
observations to update TAFs based on the degree of degraded
visibility. Hi-res guidance is in fairly solid agreement with
band of rain showers moving from southwest to northeast across
the region late tonight through daybreak Thursday. Southeasterly
winds will increase through tomorrow morning. Gusts are forecast
to approach 30kts across western MN following the departure of
the showers. The increase in winds should push the low-level
moisture northward, resulting in ceiling improvements from south
to north through tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Not particularly optimistic in ceilings improving to
MVFR this evening, so took the 00z TAF in a more pessimistic
direction holding IFR cigs through the night. Band of showers
appears likely from ~10-14z, which is slightly delayed from the
previous TAF. SE winds increase with the arrival of showers and
will eventually aid in flushing out the low-level
moisture/cigs. Gusts likely approach 25kts as cigs improve to
VFR tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...Strus