334
FXUS63 KMPX 241039
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
539 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A somewhat active period is expected through early next week
  with multiple chances for precip and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Regional radar shows an area of showers and thunderstorms across the
eastern Dakotas into north central Minnesota early this morning. For
the most part, this precip has only brushed our northernmost
counties. As the low levels continue to saturate and a 40-50kt LLJ
persists, rain will fill in across western Minnesota over the
next couple of hours. Along and west of a line from Little Falls
through Redwood Falls will see the bulk of the rain through
late this morning with anywhere from 0.25 to 0.50" expected. The
better moisture never really makes it much further east, so
southern and eastern Minnesota will likely see more precip in
the form of drizzle than actual rain. Regardless, overcast skies
will keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s area wide today.
Most of the day Friday should be dry before our next chance of
rain arrives overnight into early Saturday. Another trough tries
to make its way east, but its progress will be stalled by the
blocking high over the eastern Great Lakes/Canada that has been
parked there for the last few days. Additionally, another round
of dry air will work its way into the region with southeasterly
flow aloft. Once again, this will inhibit the eastward extent of
any showers.

The second half of the weekend, we finally start to see a cutoff low
over northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba and a system along the east
coast break down the stubborn surface high. A longwave trough comes
ashore in the Pacific Northwest to start the work week and looks to
bring yet another round of precip chances our way late Monday into
Tuesday. Of these three systems (this morning, Saturday, and
Monday/Tuesday), this last one looks to be the strongest. This will
likely lead to a more widespread rain event with a broad area of
0.50" to 1" QPF totals, but the risk of excessive rainfall and
severe weather both remain low. Model spread is still fairly high at
this point in time, but this will be something to keep an eye on
during the final days of September.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Showers have filled in over the past hour or two across west
central Minnesota. No major changes from the previous forecast
with precip gradually diminishing and becoming more of a drizzle
as it runs into dry air to the east early this afternoon. Main
adjustments to this TAF set were tightening up the timing of
PROB30/TEMPO groups. Western and northernmost terminals will go
solidly MVFR/IFR (LIFR for KAXN) this morning and stay there
through the end of the TAF period. Our Wisconsin sites are
expected to remain VFR through the day, which leaves KMKT and
KMSP in the middle. Confidence is low on how far not only the
rain makes it, but the MVFR/IFR cigs. Ultimately, went with a
more pessimistic forecast.

KMSP...As mentioned above, the MVFR/VFR cigs are going to be the
tricky part of the forecast today. Guidance shows showers
largely falling apart to the west of KMSP, but still thinking
some drizzle is more likely. Conditions improve after midnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...Chc MVFR. -SHRA likely. Wind SE 10-20 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dye