339
FXUS63 KMPX 071055
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
555 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First area-wide lows in the 30s Tuesday night into Wednesday.
  See Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning for more detail.

- Temperatures rebound into the 70s later this week.

- Next best chance of rain comes late this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025-

All is calm and quiet early this morning as current temperatures
range mainly in the upper 30s to mid-40s under mostly clear skies
for most sites. However, a departing upper-level trough is aiding in
the development of some cloud cover from NE`rn MN down into the
eastern Dakotas. This band of clouds is expected to continue
eastward and erode over E`rn MN/W`rn WI later this morning thanks to
a building 1030mb surface high. Forecast highs today are expected to
range in the lower 60s, perhaps a couple degrees cooler across north-
central MN. For tonight, temperatures are expected to fall below
freezing across portions of north-central MN and western WI
which as nudged us to upgrade our previously issued Freeze Watch
into a Freeze Warning. Areas just south and west of the Freeze
Warning are under a Frost Advisory and are likely to see patchy
frost formation given temperatures ranging a degree or two above
freezing coupled with light winds. Depending on temperature
forecast trends, the frost/freeze headlines may need to be
expanded southwestward, although not including the core TC-metro
where temperatures should remain a little warmer.

Wednesday will consist of mostly sunny skies and temperatures
beginning to rebound to near 70 across the Buffalo Ridge and
overnight lows will be noticeably warmer in mid 40s to lower 50s,
except for western WI who will remain in the mid 30s for one more
night. Come Thursday, a weak mid-level wave is expected to develop
over the Dakotas that afternoon into Friday. With the aid of
southwesterly flow brining in some added moisture and aligning with
peak surface heating, a few isolated rain showers cannot be ruled
out for eastern MN and western WI. Ensemble guidance trends continue
to limit QPF to less than a tenth of an inch thus nothing to disrupt
any potential evening plans. Higher confidence for any meaningful
rainfall arrives late this weekend as upper-level ridging departs
east and broad troughing over the western CONUS aids in the
development of mid-level wave which will then progress into northern
plains. Still too far out to determine exact precip locations so
feel the current NBM of 40-60 PoPs is a fair representation of
current confidence. Still lots can change between now and then but
rainfall amounts look to range between a few tenths of an with a
broad maxima over a half-inch across northern MN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR is expected at all terminals through the period. Current
winds are light to calm, at or below 5kts. They will continue
to turn westerly through the day and eventually become
northerly. Winds will be strongest around midday (around 10kts)
before going back to light/calm and variable or easterly. Skies
will be clear, but dewpoints should be low enough such that fog
is not a concern. However, don`t be startled if you see some
frost on the airplane Wednesday morning!

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Anoka-
     Douglas-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-Washington.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for
     Benton-Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd.
WI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Pepin-
     Pierce-St. Croix.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for
     Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...PV