958
FXUS63 KMPX 310014
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
714 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A corridor of heavy rain remains on track to impact the MN River
Valley in SW Minnesota, starting this evening and continuing
overnight.

- 1-2" inches with localized 4+" of heavy rain expected with
localized flooding possible, especially in low-lying areas.

- Very pleasant this weekend, with below normal temps, and mostly
sunny skies.

- Hazy/smoky skies continue at times, but the chance for surface
  smoke and air quality impacts appear low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

We are basically in a holding pattern until our "main event" arrives
later this evening and tonight. Current satellite features a mix of
patchy upper-level cirrus draped and banded diurnal cu across
eastern MN and western WI while widespread stratus moves in
from the Dakotas. Temperatures range in the mid-80s and are
expected to top out near 90 degrees this afternoon. Parts of
southern and southwestern MN will be slightly cooler as cloud
cover in those regions is a bit more prevalent. Haze on the
horizon remains in place as elevated wildfire smoke continues to
linger over the northern plains. It is expected though that the
content of smoke decreases as we head into the weekend.

We continue to monitor the forward progress of a stacked low
pressure system which will move eastward tonight into Friday. This
system continues to be advertised as a sufficient rain maker thanks
to a deep moisture profile currently in place. It is expected
as we progress into this evening, the pressure gradient from the
low will tighten and generate widespread heavy rainfall. At
least during the late afternoon/early evening hours, severe
thunderstorms are possible however, but higher confidence for
any severe storms to occur is mainly over SD/NE. There is a
potential that a storm or two early this afternoon crosses our
western MN border and produces a damaging wind gust or two
before we transition to strictly a heavy rain threat.

As for forecasted amounts, confidence continues to hone in on a
swath of QPF between 1-2" with localized 4+" of rain along and south
of the MN River Valley and southwestern MN. Latest HREF 24-hr LPMM
does try and cling onto rainfall amounts near 1" as far north as I-
94 however, given the continued trends amongst most HREF membership
and other hi-res guidance, the more realistic amount for eastern MN
(incl. the TC Metro) are closer to a few tenths of an inch at most.
Similar to snowfall events here, the gradient at which the highest
rainfall amounts are found will be sharp. This system will be slow
moving and thus allow for areas to observe prolonged heavy rainfall,
therefore localized flooding/ponding in low-lying areas will be
possible. At this time, it isn`t until late Friday afternoon
until precip clears. Aside from the rainfall, it will feel much
cooler as temps will struggle to get out of the low to mid-70s.

Once this system passes, upper-level ridging will take hold over the
northern plains. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid
80s and lows in 50s to lower 60s just in time for the weekend. As we
enter into early next week, another upper-level wave will track
across the Int`l border. This likely looks to produce another shot
of rain/storms across northern MN but still some time left to
determine the southern extent. Temperatures for the remainder of the
period will range at or just below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Rain arrives late tonight & lingers through tomorrow morning,
with the best chances for thunder, along with the  heaviest
rain & IFR conditions, most likely across west-central & south-
central MN. AXN/RWF/MKT will see the heaviest rain & lowest
conditions, while farther north & east of this band of heaviest
rain MVFR conditions are possible at times tomorrow morning.
Still some question to how long the rain linger tomorrow, it
will certainly be lightning up through the morning, but some of
the latest guidance keep light rain/drizzle lasting well into
the afternoon. Ceilings will generally lift & begin to break up
by mid to late afternoon, but MVFR conditions could persist
across western & southern Minnesota. Winds will be southerly to
southeasterly between 5-10 mph this evening & become easterly
overnight into tomorrow morning. Winds become northeasterly
through the morning with speeds increasing to 10-15 mph along
with gusts around 20 mph.


KMSP...The heaviest rain & greatest thunder threat will
certainly remain west of the terminal, but it`s still unclear
just how heavy the rain will be tomorrow morning. Some of the
latest guidance has trended closer to the metro with the
heavier rain & MVFR to IFR conditions, but confidence is still
highest that MSP will only see light rain showers/drizzle
through the morning & into the afternoon. Ceilings will lower
through the morning with a chance for MVFR conditions if we do
see more of an easterly shift in the rain overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind ESE 5 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Blue Earth-Brown-
     Chippewa-Faribault-Freeborn-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le
     Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-
     Sibley-Steele-Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...ETA